The Geopolitical situation in the Aegean sea is prone to changing, since the whole region is set ablaze by the Middle East limbo! One of Sun Tzu’s advise on the waging of war, was to take the battle where the enemy is not expecting you. But the Greeks are expecting, the question, though, is “are they the only ones?”
We read from http://www.defencenet.gr, Greece’s largest defense site that Selahattin Demirtaş (co-president of the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party of Turkey (BDP), the fourth largest political party in the country) claimed that the PKK has occupied about 300-400 km in the South Eastern Turkey. The political figure also stated that the outposts, which are still manned by soldiers of the Turkish army, are reached only by helicopters since the roads are blocked by PKK militants. With all the formalities kept, the statement was carried out inside the Turkish parliament with Selahattin Demirtas claiming that “the whole region from Semdinli to Tsukurtza is now in Kurdish hands”
“What operation???” he wondered in front of Turkish MPs, “as far as I’m concerned the Turkish army is not carrying out any military operations. They just say they do, but they don’t…!”
This is very suspicious and can only mean two things. The Turkish operational capabilities are in their minimum standards because of the purges against the military after the “Sledgehammer” and the “Suga” cases. It is to one extent probable that the Turkish army lacks, at the moment, the appropriate leadership in order to reoccupy the territory held by PKK, which is supplied by Syria and allegedly trained by Israelis (that is why since the Mavi Marmara incident the tactics of the PKK have changed radically, with the insurgents now looking more like a tactical army than guerrillas). Be that as it may, our opinion lies more within the sphere of a second more “shadowy” scenario.
Turks exhibit the pattern of “Brave with the weak and weak with the brave” on the battlefield. It is the same exhibited in the Minor Asian campaign, when Greeks almost occupied Ankara before the Turks led by Kemal Ataturk counterattacked! That said, and with the destabilization of the Geopolitical scenery in the region, it is very propable that the Turks have accepted-at last-the formation of an autonomous Kurdistan. After the operation Iraqi Freedom, the Kurdish role in Iraq has seen a gradual augmentation, but only recently and given the critical situation in Syria, have the Kurds been able to carry out a successful campaign in order to solidify their rights within Turkish soil. PKK’s insurgency has been a thorn at Turkey’s ribs since Kemal’s era and at the moment, the time seems like appropriate enough for them to grant the Kurds autonomy, but this does not come without further geopolitical rearrangements in the region.
The Turks have increased their presence along with their disputes in the Aegean sea. Greek island like “Farmakonisi” and “Agathonisi” are placed within the “Grey zones”, which Turkey refuses to accept as Greek soil since the “Imia crisis” in 1996. With the Turks losing ground to the South East an imminent attack to the West does not seem anymore-if it ever seemed-like an “unthinkable scenario”. To make things worse, EYP, Greece’s Secret Services have been able to confirm that the fires which burned down Chios and Rhodes were not accidental. As we had revealed in a previous analysis, here at Focus Dynamics, the sites, which are now burned down posed as ideal spots for artillery, in case the Turkish landing ships tried something hostile. Now, this is a luxury-amidst others-that the Greeks do not possess.
More suspicions are raised, given the fact that the Prime Minister Antonios Samaras, during a recent meeting of KY.SE.A (Something like a National Security Council) raised the army’s intervention role at all levels, namely executive, governmental, in terms of defense issues, security and military personnel, a radical decision, which can be apprehended as an effort to gradually restore the army’s role to its pre 1974 status (after the end of the junta, the Greek army was stripped of may of its prerogatives and initiatives in matters such as the ones mentioned above).
SO what is being played here? Did this occur because of the situational awareness and the admittance by the political branch that they won’t be able to contain a potential upcoming crisis? Of course this is part of the story, but it is also probable that as the army lost its privileges in 1974 because of the invasion in Cyprus, thus its role can be augmented in case of a new invasion, which can result in territorial losses, especially in the Aegean, where the rich natural resources lie. It is also highly possible, and as a matter of fact it fits an already known pattern, that as Americans played a decisive role in the establishment of the 1967 junta, they may actually try it again, this time for different and for important reasons first and foremost to ensure that the areas, which are rich in Natural Resources do not fall under Russia’s exploitation zone (through Germany’s financial domination on Greek soil). The second reason is the Eurozone crisis and Germany’s growing hegemony over the South, which threatens to cut off American interests in the region.
The same happened in Egypt, of course the US could not sustain the power exerted by the military, forever, but this is another story. The fact remains, though, that a “Balkan Spring” is going to solve numerous problems (Turkey as well, which is not going to retain its territorial integrity for long), regardless of the danger of creating-as in every intervention-new ones.
Focus Dynamics Research Center 