Turkey Strikes Syria-A casual artillery fire exchange or part of NATO’s scheme?

The “gates of hell” appear wide open at this time in the Middle East, as a few hours ago, there was an alleged incident, where mortar shells were fired on Turkish territory. The Turks have claimed that the Syrians started it and they retaliated, by shelling Syrian Targets spotted on radar. Syrians have fired back and usually this is the way broader conflicts begin, especially this one, with Turkey “chasing for it” since before the downing of its RF-4E reconnaissance plane. Turkey pursues its Noe-Ottoman dream, however it remains to be seen, whether this was an initiative taken by Turkey or it is part of a greater plan, which can and will engage a multinational force, already fighting on Syrian ground covertly, into establishing a similar “No Fly Zone” as it in Libya’s case. Spokeswoman’s  Oana Lungescu’s words, though are not very promising with regard to the intensity as it is seen by NATO. President Obama expressed his “outrage” following the alleged Syrian attack against Turkish soil. 

We are not inclined to believe in fables, especially geopolitical ones, hence we do consider that the allegations that Syria “attacked Turkey” are-at least-ridiculous. NATO has been itching for a new Libyan plan for months, only to crash on Russia’s and China’s veto. So why now and not then? The answer is Caucasus and specifically the recent elections carried out in Georgia. As Focus Dynamics had noted several weeks ago, following a thread from DEBKA (read the article here )Russian troops’ withdrawal from Tartus (at least the bulk of it) could only mean that there was an informal agreement between Presidents Putin and Obama as to whether or not the US would pursue its interests in the Caucasus for the time being. With Saakashvili suffering a humiliating defeat and with the regime change in Georgia, “The bear” is not very likely to feel any inclination towards engaging in the massacre which is about to follow. This decision buys time for Russia, but especially now and under the current Geopolitical circumstances time is the best thing Russia could “buy”, smartly avoiding engaging itself in a conventional stand off against NATO. Whether or not the situation will deteriorate is irrelevant of what is about to unfold sooner rather than later in the broader Middle East region, a sequence of events which stand a very good chance of depriving the US’s military interference for good! 

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Barack Obama-US’s Gorbachev

“Yes we can…” Democratize hell and face the consequences of radicalism, kill Bin Laden and then fund other terror cells, more extremist and more dangerous for the civilized men!

 

 

When the Soviet Union collapsed, it was the actions of Mikhail Gorbachev that led to the Geopolitical catastrophe that followed what seemed to be a “radical reform”. But in the 21st century Gorbachev’s legacy “comes back with a vengeance” in the face of the President of the US Barack Obama, who definitely has to answer for the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood and the recent assassination of the American Ambassador in Libya. The facts are unchangeable now: The US facilitated the rise of radical Islamism in the Middle East, through overt and covert support during the revolutions, which are widely known collectively as “The Arab Spring”. As it is now crystal clear, the Administration knew all about the consequences of funding radical Islamist and terror cells in the region, thus contributing to the Geopolitical “earthquakes” which keep shaking the region and the killing of Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other members of the consulate. The pics that we are about to show are shocking for any civilized person’s eyes, yet they depict the kind of  Democracy, this administration is so fond of! Behold the people who were formerly “oppressed” by Gaddafi and now “blessed” by the gifts of Democracy, which “so much deserved”. Before the photos we insert a rather prophetic poem by Robert E. Howard, which although it refers to the area of “Nippon”, which is another name of Japan, portrays the hideous details of the era we and our children live in.

“Little Brown Man Of Nippon”

Little brown man of Nippon
Who apes the ways of the west,
You have set the sword on your standard,
And the eagle on your crest.

Little brown man of Nippon,
You have dreamed a deadly dream;
You have waked the restless ravens
And the rousing vultures scream.

Oh, lines of an unborn empire,
Foam of a rising flood,
Your bones shall mark the borders,
The tide shall be your blood.

Little brown man of Nippon,
Though the star of the West be set,
And the last of the fair-haired strew the field
Where East and West be met –

Though you herd us down like cattle,
And hew us down like corn,
Our blood shall drown your vision
Of the empire yet unborn.

In utter desolation, and despair
At the end, on a blackened hill,
You shall sit and view your empire,
Broken and charred and still.

The beams of shattered houses,
Reared stark against the sky,
And fields wherein, for waving grain,
Long waves of dead men lie.

We will set the torch with our own hands
To wall and roof and spire;
We will cut the throats of our women,
And feed our babes to the fire;

We will fling our naked bosoms
Against your bloodied steel;
As you tread us under, dying,
Our teeth shall rend your heel.

But, little brown man of Nippon,
Should the dice fall otherwise,
And the gods of the fair-haired triumph
When the battle-dawns arise –

We will give your flesh to the sea-gulls
And your cities to the flame,
Till the world forgets your visions,
And the years forget your name.

Over your island empire
Shall our steel-clad squadrons fly
Till the land lies black and silent
Under a flame-ripped sky.

Till the hungry wolf goes slinking
Along your shattered streets,
And the kite in your ruined palace
Tears at the crimson meats.

And over the crimson gutters
Which infant bodies choke
The raven flaps and strangles
In the drifting shreds of smoke.

No plough shall break your valleys,
No song shall rouse your hill –
Still and silent the ploughmen,
The singers silent and still.

And your nation’s only emblem,
Oh, man of the crimson dream –
Save corpses in the broken streets
And the death-fires’ baleful gleam –

Shall hang at the prow of a cruiser,
That furrows the flying foam,
Bearing the spoils of conquest
To the fair-haired people’s home.

Shall hang at the prow of a cruiser,
Grinning and dripping red,
The price of a dream of empire –
Little brown man, your head.

No human being deserves this, let alone an American esteemed figure! A bearer of Democracy, which murderers obviously do not deserve!

On behalf of Focus Dynamics we wish to extend our sympathy to the loved ones of the victim along with our hope that some day people who are responsible for this atrocity (perpetrators included) will stand trial before of the Hague’s Tribunal

“We came, we saw, he died”, said Mrs Clinton commenting on the brutal death of a “dictator”. Unfortunately Gaddafi was not the only one who experienced this horror…

Another justification-The Golden Standard-Written just a few hours after our post by FT

 

 

 

We prayed we were wrong, yet we were not! The Republican party has decided to propose a re-link of the dollar to gold price. This is undoubtedly the right thing to do, but doing the right thing sometimes is not as good as doing it in time as well. We all pray that Fort Knox still has gold, or at least some gold in order for this reform to start putting the markets into a state of less entropy and anarchy, but…! This move indicates that the dollar as a global reserve is being questioned, both in the framework of finance and Geopolitics. With the recent Arab Spring demonstrations spreading out in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain and the anti-American sentiment booming in the Middle-East, noone is certain if the deals of the past will still be in effect next year, next month, next day (?) The US government is buying oil from Saudi Arabia and pays back in American bonds. The interests are then invested in American companies, which historically took up the task to “modernize” (this is a really soft term we use here for the radical modernization which took place in Saudi Arabia, as before American companies took over, they used goats to carry their garbage) the country’s Infrastructure and as a matter of fact this was a really fair and ingenious deal for both sides. On the one hand Saudi princes were living the Western way of life, enjoying the pleasures of civilization and on the other the Americans took a deep breath after the oil crisis of the ’70s but…but…but…well nothing lasts forever! It is notable that the Reagan government was the one, who pushed the Saudis to drop the oil prices in the ’80s, thus facilitating the collapse of the ex-USSR during the so called “second cold war” before Gorbachev took over and implemented the Perestroika and the Glasnost reforms. His predecessors (as Reagan himself), namely Andropov and Chernenko, were not the type of people who cared much about resolving amicably the two countries’ pressing and deep rooted problems. Lest we forget that the term “empire of evil” was first used by Reagan and Thatcher during the “second cold war” era.

A financial new-old order may look radical and to some extent discomforting for many Wall Street oligarchs, who have been plundering the US (and the world) for many years using paper to build up their capital portfolios, but as Milan Kundera stated it in German, Es muss sein (It has to happen). We judge that such an alteration in those extra radical times, may have the same repercussions to the US, as Perestroika had during Gorbachev’s era (The USSR was dissolved), but still if the US does not “stop the music” now, Europe or the emerging markets will and then noone can (or dares) predict the consequences. In Focus Dynamics we approve the Republican’s party initiative and as a matter of fact we salute it, we should note though that things henceforth will not look that rosy for the US. It will take many years for the country to regain its place in leading the World, but let’s not forget that this came to be primarily through the cultural and political characteristics of the US, the innovative spirit of the people and the chances businessmen and entrepreneurs enjoyed before the coming of this dark era!

 

Turkey and the method of driving its opponents to despair-The hot zones of Greece

Turkish politics have hardly changed since the Ottoman times, not to mention since the butchering of the Greeks living in Smirni (now Izmir) and the genocide of the Armenians. History and time in general are factors, which are considered able to change both the political factors and the people themselves, but that is hardly the case for Turkey or Germany or Japan (especially with the events being unfolded in the Eastern Pacific region regarding Japanese claims of islands belonging to three different countries namely Russia, South Korea and China). But the case of Turkey is the one worth studying at the moment, outside the context of any historically linked prejudice. The last few days fires have burned out the Greek island of Chios, lying into very close proximity to the Turkish borders. It is not the first time that MIT-Turkish Intelligence Services- have pursued this method of sabotaging hostile territory, as in 1997 (2007 as well), Turks admitted that they were the ones lighting fires all over Peloponnese (South Greece). There is a great difference though between then and now. Back then Turkish intentions were just to sabotage Greece’s territory and cause damage during the tourist season. Now, though, the case is quite different. As the Greek site http://www.olympia.gr reports the Northern part of the island (Chios) is not favorable for disembarkation operation, whereas the Southern part is, provided of course that the forest are burned down. The Greek post associated with the issue brings up another very logical reason behind the fires. Once the fires burn down everything in the inner parts of the island, artillery units will be unable to find safe haven on the island in case they have to defend it. As we are informed by the Greek magazine “Defense Bible” (2011-12 edition) the new artillery units M109G3A2 (photo) would augment the country’s defense capabilities in the mainland, whereas on the islands older units like M109A1B, M109A2 and M109A5 would be following their transport from the mainland. According to many modern military theorists the role of the artillery and the tank is outdated, but this theory lies only in the context of Counter Insurgency tactics adopted in the war against terror. Artillery means enhanced fires power, a factor which can determine the outcome of a conflict carried out between two countries (Greece-Turkey for example), both using heavy armored vehicles! Still, though, artillery units need shelter no matter how sophisticated and state of the art, they remain “slow moving beasts”, which once spotted they can be destroyed. Further to our worries regarding an upcoming standoff between those two ancient foes (Greece and Turkey) pose the propaganda and information war carried out in Western Thrace, where the Turks claim that not only is there a minority living there, but they are “repressed by the Greeks as well”. The reveal of the 2005 “Sledgehammer” operation designed by the now imprisoned Turkish Generals (Erdogan used the scandal to contain them, as being Kemalists, thus a thorn in his Islamic government) has added importance to the area of “Western Thrace”, but still, this region poses a secondary target for the Turkish Armed Forces, with the first one being the highly enriched in natural gas regions of the Eastern Aegean sea, now belonging to Greece.

In 1996 the two countries came in the brink of war over disputed rock islands, “Imia” in Greek, “Kardak” in Turkish. The late Richard Holbrooke acted as a diplomatic mediator, achieving an aversion of an all out war between those countries. It is notable what Hobrooke had said back then, “I can’t believe that they are going on war over a rock”, but as it came out to be there are many “rocks” around the world marking a broader Independent Economic Zone for each state, in other words areas, which can be rich in Natural Resources. With issues over alleged “Grey zones” brought up by Turkey concerning the Aegean Sea, Greeks do not have the luxury to start drilling in order to ease off their debt pain. Turkey has illusions that it can reconstruct its Ottoman strength and instill control over the broader Middle East. For reasons still unknown, the country is left to believe whatever it wants, but once the drums of war begin to sound, it is extremely likely that Turkey will find itself between hammer and anvil as both US and Russia are eager to lay their hands on those natural resources. Last but not least  both the US and Israel support the idea of creating an independent Kurdistan, thus it is only a matter of time before Turkey decides to try something “impulsive” in order to further “press the hot zones”, but in that case it is highly likely that it may hasten its unavoidable fragmentation. 

Sharpening the Assassin’s dagger: Saudis are ordered to evacuate Lebanon

The Saudis are evacuating Lebanon! The embassy of Saudi Arabia in Lebanon call the Saudi citizens “to immediately evacuate the country”! Israel has made it clear that in the case of Assad’s fall, it will conduct operations in Lebanon in order to contain Hizbollah’s inevitable rising power, which will be facilitated by religious wars following Syria’s disarray. Israel was not favored by the Arab Spring, on the contrary Netanyahu is sitting on pins and needles and it is logical for the Israelis to prefer “The devil they know” aka Bashar Al Assad. The reason behind the imminent evacuation may also be linked to the upcoming strike against Iran, although this will not take place until October, if of course it takes place at all! There have been speculations on how many planes Israel would require in order to bomb the nuclear facilities of Iran and these estimate not less than 100 planes, a number which the Israelis do not possess and even if they did possess it, it would be impossible to destroy all the facilities, which are scattered around the country. For the operation JDAM (Satellite Guided) along with GBU (Laser Guided) penetrating missiles are necessary to be used, because the facilities are way underground. With the Russian commandos in Syria and the plans of action of Israel either against Hamas or Iran or against those two simultaneously , one thing is certain, that the war in the Middle East will not be postponed for much longer. Be that as it may,though, “Winter is coming”, food prices are already skyrocketing and a turmoil in the Middle East one can expect to boost the oil into “stratospheric” values (a fact which will augment the vicious circle of food crisis->more expensive oil->even higher food crisis). Brace tight!

Hostile Waters-Russians dispatch Akula class “Boomer” to Mexico’s gulf and Tu-95 to Alaska

The world is going through a deep crisis and the political leaders have rendered themselves incapable of handling the deepest impact yet to be seen. Focus Dynamics Research has emphasized the danger behind the use of Counter-Insurgency tactics solely, in order for US to be fully protected and responsive. The results are evident, this time in the Gulf of Mexico. According to sources and American Media, the Russians have dispatched an Akula type Nuclear Submarine (often designated as “Boomers”) to the Gulf of Mexico. The Boomer remained undetected until the captain decided to surface, in other words he chose when to get detected. American officials have stated on WSJ that “{The Navy} is responsible for detecting nuclear subs through underwater sensors and satellite techniques. The fact that it failed to do so has raised by itself great concerns”.

As if that was not alarming, at the same time Tu-95 bombers violated the airspace of Alaska twice notably in June and July. The bombers bore cruise missiles and according to some reports they seemed to be targeting Alaska’s air defenses. Specifically on July 4 a bomber violated West Coast’s air space only to be intercepted (naturally) by American F-16 jets dispatched for this purpose. In the case of the Tupolevs, it is the first time since the end of the cold-war that Russia violates en mass US’s airspace in Alaska, the same though cannot be said about the “Boomer”. In 2009, after the Caucasus crisis which almost brought the Russian Federation and the United States at the brink of conflict, two Akulas were found to be patrolling near the US’s East Coast. 

The facts speak for themselves and it would be pointless from our side to stretch how dangerous the tensions between the RF and the US can prove out to be for the Globe’s stability. We will note though, that the relations between the two countries have been put to the test, as the Obama administration has failed to “tame the bear” through the application of the so called “Restart”, which was meant to reduce the tension after the Russian-Georgian war. The US has put enormous gravity in the installation of a Missile Defense Shield in Poland, a project the future of which is questionable after Poland’s President Bronislaw Komorowski recent intervention. Additional “unfortunate” pursuits have been the establishment of a No-Fly-Zone “Libyan style” over Syria, West’s Interference through supplying the Free Syrian Army with weapons and last but not least the allegations still “hanging in the air” that the demonstrations which followed Russia’s elections were funded from “the outside”. True or not true, the fact that the West was not very pleased with Putin’s reelection as president of the Russian Federation, remains an undisputed fact. Moreover the interference of Alexei Navalny, a well known Russian blogger and activist, has made the situation worse, as Navalny was funded by somewhere in order to buy stocks in various Russian state owned companies like Rosneft and Transneft and subsequently “blow the whistle”, every time something not transparent came to pass. The Russians openly accused Western Intelligence Services of Navalny’s actions, however nothing is proven at least up to date.

The two ex cold war foes now seem to be going through another Cold War phase, the difference though this time is that there are other “major Geopolitical Players” as well, a fact that makes the repercussions of potential future crises even more severe. The US administration has pursued cuts in the defense sector up to 487 billion dollars, while on the other hand, Russia spends huge sums in order to restore her former glory (most likely by 2020). Of course 2020 is far ahead of 2012, but if in 2012 an Akula infiltrates American waters, what could happen in 8 years from now, when the “Rodina” will be fully armed and operational? More info on the Boomer can be found in wikipedia, following the link below

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akula_class_submarine

Below you may find three videos, one is a teaser derived from a game, in which a Russian pilot’s codename “Akula”, spreads terror just by the sound of it.

 

Syria/Tartus Base-Armed and Operational

Itar Tass has confirmed today that a disembarkation occurred at the port of Tartus, Russia’s sole military base in the Mediterranean sea. According to the update, as we had written several days ago, when we wrote of the reconnaissance contingent’s disembark , three warships namely ‘Aleksander Otrakovskiy’, “Georgiy Pobedonosets” and “Kondopoga” unloaded hundreds of marines along with several BTR vehicles (Armored Personnel Carriers). Amongst them is a GRU contingent most likely the elite Spetsnaz units stationed in Chechnya, specially trained for Counter Terrorism operations. According to reports the unloaded troops are headed towards the mainland, where they will definitely offer their support in order to counter the rising insurgency!

As if this fact alone was not ominous, Britain and France intend to carry out exercises by dispatching around 400 marines, frigates, a submarine along with numerous other surface ships including a helicopter carrier and the French aircraft carrier CDG (Charles De Gaulle). According to the British Defense Ministry, they will carry out exercises and if need by they will evacuate British and French citizens, who are left behind in the war torn country. Nothing is mentioned about a potential, off the UN context, establishment of a “No Fly Zone”, however there are many who believe that Clinton’s visit to Turkey and her discussions with Davutoglu includes the above matter in the agenda as well. Be that as it may, the conflict, which started in the broader context of the Arab Spring protests has taken a nasty turn with the Free Syrian Army counting more than a 1000 dead in the last days in the city of Aleppo! In a rather similar scenario in Libya, the No Fly Zone was applied when Gaddafi was winning the battle of Benghazi and his victory over the rebels was a matter of days. NATO’s intervention turned the tables, but it left Libya in a state of disarray with regions being autonomous or semi-autonomous! Russians swore that the same scenario would not reoccur in Syria and that should the Turks (or anyone else) decide to deploy planes in the context of a No Fly Zone, they are going to shoot them down “like toy ducks in the fun fair”.

Turkey unable to handle PKK’s occupation of its SE region

PKK, the Kurdish party, which strives for an autonomous Kurdistan has burst its insurgency, especially during the last year. Amid an ongoing Turkey-Israeli crisis since the attack on Mavi Marmara, a ship allegedly carrying humanitarian help to Gaza (carrying armed MIT agents as well) there have been speculations and accusation from the Turkish side that Israel is offering aid to the insurgents. Be that as it may, the fighters of PKK have developed a new savvy on the battlefield exhibiting discipline along with skills usually encountered in a tactical army, instead of a rebel one. Although PKK never gave up the fight for an independent Kurdistan, its activity plunged after the arrest of Abduallah Ocalan, the party’s leader back in February of ’99. In 2003 during operation Iraqi Freedom the Americans grew a particular interest in the Kurdish issue, since the Turks denied passage to the allied troops, whereas the Kurds participated in the overthrow of the Iraq regime.

Amidst the growing tension on Syrian soil, Kurds grabbed the chance and launched an attack against regions of SE Turkey, thus augmenting their armed liberating conflict on Turkish soil. Specifically the Turkish government imposed martial law on 7 zones in the Hakari province, while Turkish officials do not deny the fact that they just cannot cope with the occupation of Şemdinli, Zap and Zagros by the Kurds. We should note that the region in dispute has the size of Western Thrace, as Greek popular site defencenet (www.defencenet.gr) reports. The overall stability in the Eastern Mediterranean Region is heavily disputed. It is our estimation that should the Turks fail to get back those territories, they may try to annex news ones, which they do not belong to them, for example Western Thrace or a large part of the Eastern Aegean Region, lying close to the Turkish coastline. The issue has become more serious, because of recent activities concerning its Natural Resources. President of Israel Simon Peres visited Athens pointing out the importance of a Greek naval armada being dispatched in Cyprus, as in the case of a conflict, regardless whether it is big or small, the Israeli navy will not be able to defend the area by itself. Greece is in a dramatic situation, because of the economic crisis, but still her armed forces drill intensively, a sign that the general brew may lead after all to the necessity of repelling a potential agressive move by Turkey. How things will play out, is a fact which remains to be seen

Turkey Invades Syria-What’s inside the Pandora’s Box?

Turkey has finally taken the initiative of self destruction, a policy which has been pursuing for years in the Eastern-SE Mediterranean region and invaded Syria! Specifically, as sources report, a few hours ago, Turkish military forces crossed the border supported by AH-1W support helicopters capturing the city of Jarabulus! The invasion took place today after yesterday’s abduction of 12 officers of the Turkish army, by the Kurds operating in the region! A reminder, that Bashar Al Assad granted the Kurds a carte blanche, a superior strategic move, which placed them along Assad’s regime and allowed the transport of fresh troops to the battlefield of Aleppo. We should also note that today a small Russian unit disembarked in Tartus Port (Russian Base in Syria), a fact which makes the situation even hazier, since it is not clear whether it poses a simple reconnaissance task force or is the vanguard of a greater disembarking process. As the government has deployed three fresh divisions (one mechanized. two Infantry) and two Brigades in Aleppo, the clouds of war gather ominously above Syrian ground, on which NATO, Iranian and Russian forces (Spetsnaz special CT forces) have been operating for months. With the diplomatic dimension crippled, since Annan’s resignation, every aspect of any potential endgame is now possible, since the Pandrora’s Box has been opened and regardless whether the Great powers operating there wish or do not wish to know, what’s inside.