“Psychotronics”: “The Dark Side” of Information Warfare

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“…You create the world of the dream. We bring the subject into that dream and fill it with their subconscious…”

The above quote, which belongs to Leonardo Di Caprio, starring in the recent Hollywood production “Inception”, sounds like it is derived directly from George Orwell’s novel “1984” in which the author writes: “You will be hollow. We shall squeeze you empty, and then we shall fill you with ourselves.”

Alas, the above quotes are not, as it is seen and proven, a concept encountered in Cinema movies or in the sci-fi literature anymore. They shed light to a dark reality of technological evolution, which opens the doors for intervention within the human consciousness. Elements, which posed as objects of research for many decades, branches of science which were further evolved in the labs of the US and ex USSR, have been put together in order to create the tip of the spear of the modern alternative side of Information Warfare, also known as “Psychotronics”.

A casual definition which might elaborate the terms “Psychotronics” is that of the sum of the procedures, in which state of the art technological achievements are being utilized, in order for scientists to intervene directly or indirectly to the consciousness or subconscious functions, having been scientifically defined as “the soul”. Despite the fact that this particular definition of “Psychotronics” is more associated with specialized systems, which indeed bear the ability to bring about such results, nevertheless they are but a part of the means which are used overall in the process of “tampering with the psyche”. In a similar research we had analyzed the effects of the so called “Biochemical Weapons” used during the Dubrovka hostage crisis, which make up the “psychotropic” branch of “Psychotronics”. In other words, in this particular essay, we referred to specialized chemical agents (barbiturates, opioids, anti-depressants, and so on and so forth), which are able to cause a reversible (at least most of the times) behavioral change.

Biochemical weapons, as the “Psychotropic” part, serve a specific cause in the process of “behavioral manipulation”, still though “Psychotronics” is made up of a multitude of sciences like Biochemistry, Behavioral and Quantum Psychology, Depth Psychology (as defined by the mail conversation between Wolfgang Pauli and Karl Jung) and of course last but not least, Physics (both theoretical and applied).

The above “alloy” of scientific efforts of various fields cannot but be regarded as the apex made up of all the groundbreaking results of the International Scientific Community, each sector working with the other, overlapping their results, with the greatest minds seeing beyond the horizon, a century where all sciences will be unified and ultimately the human behavior will be placed in context, whereby it can be explained, even predicted to an extent. Nevertheless the “curse” of modern sciences, the subsequent weaponization of grand results confirm what Oppenheimer once said that:

“…In some sort of crude sense which no vulgarity, no humor, no overstatement can quite extinguish, the physicists have known sin; and this is a knowledge which they cannot lose”.

Technology and Information Warfare

Timothy L. Thomas is a Lieutenant Colonel (USA Ret.) an analyst at the Foreign Military Studies Office, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, he has written extensively on the Russian view of information operations and on current Russian military-political issues. During his military career he served in the 82d Airborne Division and was the Department Head of Soviet Military-Political Affairs at the US Army’s Russian Institute in Garmisch, Germany.

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On July 1, 2009 he published an article on “Parameters magazine”, whereby he addresses an issue, which although it was far from being a secret for numerous years, it was and is still considered as a “conspiracy theory”. The title of the article is “The mind has no firewall” and in it Thomas describes the technology of the “Psychotronic weapons”.

“…We are on the threshold of an era in which these data processors of the human body may be manipulated or debilitated. Examples of unplanned attacks on the body’s data-processing capability are well-documented. Strobe lights have been known to cause epileptic seizures. Not long ago in Japan, children watching television cartoons were subjected to pulsating lights that caused seizures in some and made others very sick…”, says Thomas but those experiments seem like ancient history compared to the more recent exploitation of more advanced technology. According to Thomas’s review:

“…The 7 July 1997 issue of U.S. News and World Report described several of them designed, among other things, to vibrate the insides of humans, stun or nauseate them, put them to sleep, heat them up, or knock them down with a shock wave. The technologies include dazzling lasers that can force the pupils to close; acoustic or sonic frequencies that cause the hair cells in the inner ear to vibrate and cause motion sickness, vertigo, and nausea, or frequencies that resonate the internal organs causing pain and spasms; and shock waves with the potential to knock down humans or airplanes and which can be mixed with pepper spray or chemicals…”

What stands out, though, is the part where Thomas states that specific stimuli can cause imbalances to what is defined by scientists and non-scientists as “psyche”.  What does he mean by that?

As it is known, the signals which are transferred from the brain to the rest of the body and vice versa are electric by nature. The Intensity with which the so called “nerve impulse” is being transferred, in other words the Intensity of the signals themselves defines the reactions towards the external or internal stimuli. The nerve stimulation and the subsequent transfer of the nerve impulse constitute the cornerstone of both the Central and the Autonomous nervous system. In order to show how important the role of the nerve impulse, let’s have a look at an example. Why when we touch a bare wire and we get electrified, we find it extremely difficult to take away our body part from the “hazardous zone” of the wire? It happens because the muscles due to the massive waves of electricity coming from the wire are “locked” in the command “stay” rather than “let go” coming from the brain.

Of course, the approach of giving a definition to the human psyche, based solely on electric signals, makes the definition itself quite superficial. The truth lies behind the interaction between the nerve stimuli, which place the individual within a specific and defined context of space and time, thus giving him a starting point and from there composing what we call “consciousness”.  The use of intense light (stroboscopic) is known to cause epileptic seizures, while Thomas already mentioned the cases of children watching TV in Japan and either having seizures or at least feeling vertigo and nausea. Having said that, it is clear enough that there is no ethical background motivating the application of such kind of “technology”, even though it has been used for medical purposes in cases of drug addiction, alcoholism, even addiction to nicotine.

Thomas being on active duty during the cold war, realizes that whatever progress whatsoever in the specific field lies within the broader context of an arms race, especially with the Russians who have already developed similar methods. The truth is that published essays of Russian scientists on the specific sector have led to declarations like “Mankind is on the verge of a Psychotronic war”, stating openly enough that they too have been engaged in similar researches as well. Actually the Russians went thus far as to admit it openly, when President Putin said ‘Such high-tech weapons systems will be comparable in effect to nuclear weapons, but will be more acceptable in terms of political and military ideology’, before Anatoly Serdyukov (ex Minister of Defense) stated: “The development  of weaponry based on new physics principles – direct-energy weapons, geophysical weapons, wave-energy weapons, genetic weapons, psychotronic weapons, and so on – is part  of the state arms procurement programme for 2011-2020”.

The sum of definitions that have been periodically given by experts of the American armed forces, in a time interval from 1996 until today, refer to information warfare as something more than the mere use of communication media, in order for one opponent to prevail over the other in the field of intel gathering and that is something that modern analysts, willingly or not, prefer to overlook. But the definitions given are crystal clear (  DoD Directive S-3600.1 09/12/1006, US Army Field Manual 101-5-1, 30/09/1997 etc.):

“This “systems” approach to the study of information warfare emphasizes the use of data, referred to as information, to penetrate an adversary’s physical defenses that protect data (information) in order to obtain operational or strategic advantage…” says Thomas in his essay on Information Warfare.

In terms of the media utilized to deliver this “information payload”, amongst other, Thomas mentions electromagnetic pulses, microwaves, acoustic energy waves, vortexes that are meant to confuse the brain’s optic centers etc.

In May 1999 the neuroscientists conference, sponsored by the UN, took place in Tokyo. In the declaration they stated: “Today we have intellectual, physical and financial resources to master the power of the brain itself, and to develop devices to touch the mind and even control or erase consciousness. We wish to profess our hope that such pursuit of knowledge serves peace and welfare”.

And while the rhetoric on “serving peace and welfare” was going “quite alright”, the experiments kept on with pulsed microwaves causing the synchronization of isolated neurons with the frequency of pulsing of the transmitted microwaves. When this happens in general i.e when the frequency of the transmitter reaches the self frequency of the medium receiving the transmission, then the second reaches its breaking point. That was known at least from antiquity when the commanders were ordering the troops to stop marching when crossing a bridge (oscillation-self frequency-bridge collapse).

Moreover, pulsed microwaves changed the concentration of neurotransmitters in brain and reinforced or attenuated the effects of drugs delivered into the brain. Having said that, we can state with confidence that the statement issued at the conference did not, in any way, correspond to any “hopes on serving peace and welfare” whatsoever. The American Air Force 1982 “Final Report On Biotechnology Research Requirements For Aeronautical Systems Through the Year 2000” states: “While initial attention should be toward degradation of human performance through thermal loading and electromagnetic field effects, subsequent work should address the possibilities of directing and interrogating mental functioning, using externally applied fields”

In January 1999, the European Commission after having been pressed by the Russian Duma (before the Russians change their mind and ultimately pursue the psychotronic warfare with everything they’ve got) passed on a resolution, whereby it called for the formation of a treaty (similar to CWC and BWC), which would prohibit any Research and Development on technology, which would relate to manipulation of human beings. The effort was led by the Russian scientists Lopatin and Tsygankov who had published a book on Psychotronic weapons and Russia’s security. In 2000 V. Lopatin introduced the subject of  “Informational and Psychological Security of the Russian Federation“. Lopotin’s findings were reviewed by the Russian newspaper Segodnya:

“…Means of informational-psychological influence are capable not only of harming the health of an individual, but, also of causing, according to Lopatin, ‘the blocking of freedom of will of human being on the subliminal level, the loss of the ability of political, cultural and social self identification, the manipulation of societal consciousness, which could lead to   the destruction of a sense of collective identify by the Russian people and nation’“

Lopatin himself during a session of the Russian Federation council stated that psychotronic weapons can: “cause the blocking of the freedom of will of a human being on a subliminal level” or “instillation into the consciousness or subconsciousness of a human being of information which will trigger a faulty or erroneous perception of reality”. Let’s compare that to Leonardo Di Caprio’s quote with which we started this analysis: “…You create the world of the dream. We bring the subject into that dream and fill it with their subconscious…” and what differences do we spot? None, apart from the fact that Lopatin’s non Hollywood scenario predicts the filling of the subjects’ subconscious, even if the subject is not sleeping.

The addendum to the article 6 of the Russian Federation law On Weapons was approved on July 26, 2001. It states: “within the territory of the Russian Federation is prohibited the circulation of weapons and other objects the effects of the operation of which are based on the use of electromagnetic, light, thermal, infra-sonic or ultra-sonic radiations”

Apparently things were about to change as the Russian Federation made the R&D issue of Mind Control weapons a matter of “deterrence” earlier last year, as noted above.

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The Russians believe somehow that banning the use of mind weapons from a country is completely different from developing those weapons in order to be used should the Country ever gets attacked through those means, but the title of Thomas’s article, “The mind has no firewall”, covers every possible argument or debate on this issue. Based on the doctrine of deterrence for the protection of the “Rodina”, the Russians insist that the human brain must not be viewed as a “closed system”, but rather as an open one, which interacts with its environment through data exchange.

To be more specific and according to Victor Solntsev of the Baumann Technical Institute in Moscow, the interaction system may consist of a computer and its human user. Here Solntsev starts an argument, which may pose as a “reversed doctrine”. The target could be the computer instead of the human, which could be modified by the enemy in order to transmit optical and acoustic waves, supersonic or in general those stimuli capable of manipulating both the free will and the functions of the user as a whole. Some, argue that this type of interaction lies within a different context of that set by Information Warfare, but objectively, according to our opinion, the only  thing that changes is the medium or rather the intermediate exerting the influence, which is just another piece of machinery.

Within the framework set by Solntsev’s “anti-doctrine”, Russian specialists put software programs, which can influence the sum of activities of the human soul, like for example the Russian made virus 666 also known as the 25th frame.

“It manifests itself in every 25th frame of a visual display, where it produces a combination of colors that allegedly put computer operators into a trance. The subconscious perception of the new pattern eventually results in arrhythmia of the heart”, according to Thomas’s very accurate description in terms of the manifestation of the program. But probably the most “disturbing” part of the procedure is the accomplishment of “Inception” as seen in the movie. Citing the words of Thomas once again:

“The purpose of this technique is to inject a thought into the viewer’s subconscious”.

Obsessive Compulsive disorders, phobias, anginas, distractive attention, at the end of the day the cause of the symptoms may be rooted elsewhere than merely a “broken genome” or just “another stressful day”. No innuendos or conspiracy theories, just taking seriously the words of experts on the issue in the era of information, as it was characterized a long time ago, by people who examined the effects of information on human beings.

Again, the message passed by the Hollywood movie is far from being groundless:

“What’s the most resilient parasite? An Idea. A single idea from the human mind can build cities. An idea can transform the world and rewrite all the rules, which is why I have to steal it”.

Finally, on the Russian “opposite side” Major I. Chernishev elaborated on the “research methods” which are being used in the context of Psy weapons’ R&D:

 

-A psychotronic generator, which produces a powerful electromagnetic emanation capable of being sent through telephone lines, TV, radio networks, supply pipes, and incandescent lamps.

-An autonomous generator, a device that operates in the 10-150 Hertz band, which at the 10-20 Hertz band forms an infrasonic oscillation that is destructive to all living creatures.

-A nervous system generator, designed to paralyze the central nervous systems of insects, which could have the same applicability to humans.

-Ultrasound emanations, which one institute claims to have developed. Devices using ultrasound emanations are supposedly capable of carrying out bloodless internal operations without leaving a mark on the skin. They can also, according to Chernishev, be used to kill.

-Noiseless cassettes. Chernishev claims that the Japanese have developed the ability to place infra-low frequency voice patterns over music, patterns that are detected by the subconscious. Russians claim to be using similar “bombardments” with computer programming to treat alcoholism or smoking.

-The 25th-frame effect, alluded to above, a technique wherein each 25th frame of a movie reel or film footage contains a message that is picked up by the subconscious. This technique, if it works, could possibly be used to curb smoking and alcoholism, but it has wider, more sinister applications if used on a TV audience or a computer operator.

-Psychotropics, defined as medical preparations used to induce a trance, euphoria, or depression. Referred to as “slow-acting mines,” they could be slipped into the food of a politician or into the water supply of an entire city. Symptoms include headaches, noises, voices or commands in the brain, dizziness, pain in the abdominal cavities, cardiac arrhythmia, or even the destruction of the cardiovascular system.

All of the above can be found in Thomas’s article, which is under examination in this essay.

Chernisev, though believes that certain aspects of the “Psy” weapon deserve closer attention and thus further research, especially those who can penetrate the “psyche” and cause serious disruptions. Those methods include:

ESP research: determining the properties and condition of objects without ever making contact with them and “reading” peoples’ thoughts

Clairvoyance research: observing objects that are located just beyond the world of the visible–used for intelligence purposes

Telepathy research: transmitting thoughts over a distance–used for covert operations

Telekinesis research: actions involving the manipulation of physical objects using thought power, causing them to move or break apart–used against command and control systems, or to disrupt the functioning of weapons of mass destruction

Psychokinesis research: interfering with the thoughts of individuals, on either the strategic or tactical level.

All the above have been objects of investigation by the American DARPA as well, sometimes in the context of inter-agencies cooperation by people and military bodies mentioned in Thomas’s essay. It is not as much important, though, who carries out the experiments as Thomas’s repeated point within his article that “The mind has no firewall”, thus pointing out that the research cannot be confined to certain individuals, affecting certain behavioral aspects without disrupting the psyche in the end. Thomas is talking about systemic effects, which can start by the mere tampering of “eyesight” for example.

The aftermath of the application of “the forbidden knowledge”: Pauli, Jung and Einstein’s paradox

Einstein wasn’t a great fun of Quantum mechanics. On the contrary he spent all his life researching on a way to prove that “The God does not play dice with the universe”. Thus his “mouse-universe” paradox can be speculated to be rooted in his hostile attitude towards Quantum mechanics. He once stated that he could not believe that a mouse could bring about drastic changes in the universe just by looking at it. A mouse observes the moon for example, what does that mean? That it can thereby create the whole universe from scratch?

Overlooking the fact that Einstein was obsessed and a sworn foe of Quantum Physics and those words were spoken during delirious moments of the late scientist, nevertheless they refer to major issues like time, space, consciousness and the process of intervention in the human consciousness. Indeed, one may look at this from another point of view: If Indeed the foundations of the universe incorporated simplistic values confined to “building”, then we suppose that even a mouse could learn how to build it. But the universe is a lot more than a fine “piece of art” anyone could reverse engineer and build it again. It incorporates the flow of events, that means the flow of energy and matter, which pass through different phases of entropy and can reach states of-albeit limited-anarchy.

Einstein’s paradox reminds us of Hess’s law or as it is also known the axiom of the initial and final state, which is applied in chemical reactions. The calculation of the energy absorbed or released, is not dependent on the intermediate states, but rather on the initial and the final state of the reaction system.

Within this systemic approach lie all the studies on the consciousness and sub consciousness along with any other effort to explain the modus operandi from anything ranging from a weapons system to a dream (which as described above can pose the substrate of firing different kind of weapons).

Pauli tried to observe and subsequently explain the nexus between the consciousness and sub consciousness, though Quantum Mechanics and through the analysis of Freud’s disciple, Carl Jung, who used archetypes in order to interpret the messages that were incorporated in most of the dreams.

In his book “Quantum Psychology”, Robert Anton Wilson criticizes the “Copenhagen school”, which on the one hand it did lay the foundations for the evolution of Quantum theory, but on the other it adopted extremely conservative criteria of evaluation and acceptance of additional theories, which up to date they are broadly disregarded. Wilson, based on the era of information argues that the human mind along with those activities which make up “the psyche” start off from the subatomic level and thus they synthesize a greater foundation, which falls under the universal rules of evolution and adaptivity. Having said that, Wilson’s approach can be rendered as the same one adopted by the Russian scientific community, which backs up the software-based understanding of the human brain and that is based on the fact that the brain does receive raw information material, but it recomposes the stimuli which receives.

The massive flow of data in the human brain can have detrimental side effects and can lead to symptoms of massive insanity, obsessions along with many other depressing-type disorders in general. Researches, which have been carried out on brain’s overload, have shown, through the use of MRI images, that the massive flow of information has at least the same so called “threshold effect”, the phenomenon which is met at a microscopic level when the concentration of the substrate exceeds the enzyme’s capacity. This can lead to the so called “allosteric effect” whereby the excessive material can stop a whole reaction pathway.

Analysts argue that the amount of information being exchanged over an hour through the internet is equal to the same amount a man living in the 18th century would assimilate in his whole lifetime. Having said that and bearing in mind Wilson’s “Quantum Psychology”, the micromolecules of the brain have to react somehow in order for homeostasis to be preserved. That said, since the quantum phenomenon takes place at the molecular level, it is extremely likely that biomolecules get quantized, this resulting in the whole consciousness being quantized.

In plain words, this may very well be happening due to the lack of “storing space”. So, in order to acquire additional space, the consciousness has to open up the “Black Gates” of the sub-consciousness, this resulting to subconscious material getting leaked to the conscious domain. One does not need a phD degree in Psychology to figure out the detrimental effects of this procedure in the human soul. In our “case study” no “specialized weapons” were used no “Psyops” techniques no “Voodoo stuff” just an overflow of the brain with information and the soul itself lives through the rather violent procedure of archetype assimilation while at the same time it is called to metabolize the “toxic byproducts” coming from the “Abyss of the human soul”.

A person experiencing such a tremendous metabolic stress, it reacts as Quantum Psychology predicts it will. It adopts multiple personality traits, just as the photon which has a dual state of particle and a wave. The shock waves in that case are enormous as the individual realizes that Schrödinger’s cat is neither dead nor alive, but it exists in an intermediate state.

The “stall” of consciousness and the price of the evolutionary palindrome

“Psychotronics” constitutes a sector, the applications of which can be found at a Country’s “armory” and this is something that officials have admitted as we saw in this analysis. The Research and Development on neurosciences sector has played a catalytic role towards the development of new ways or new “Psy toys”, which can target consciousness and transform men into humanoids without free will. We often listen to the expression: “It was my choice”, but under those circumstances we ought to stop and think to what extent is this claim realistic when the notions of “choice” and “free will” are broadly doubted.

The data volume which an individual is called to assimilate through the “brain software” can reach up to 34 Gb per day. That means that if a movie has a size of 1 Gb roughly, we are called to assimilate the content of 34 movies per day (!!!!).

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The conscious and sub-conscious comprise a continuity, a line on the verge of two worlds, the earthly and the universal one. Up to now, what we had been doing was using the archetypes of Jung that lure in the sub-consciousness to excuse ourselves for specific tendencies or in plain words, bad habits.  Evolution, though, talks by itself and in this case it is natural selection, which pushes to the next level, the unification of the two worlds mentioned above and the manifestation of “Singularity”, defined as the event horizon beyond which no prediction can be made for the human species (Stanford 2007). What could practically mean that, though and how could it reach out to our everyday life? By approaching “Singularity”, we fall under extreme stress both at the personal and social level. This adds up to the evolutionary stress through accelerating the cell cycle for example, a fact which transfers this stress to the genome. The organism then reacts systemically in order to avoid extinction, it mutates and upgrades its functions. In this upgrading process the sub-conscious comes to fill in the conscious front in the same way that military reserves are dropped to battle in order to fill in the ranks.

Having said that, the generations that are created henceforth, consisting of those individuals who managed to survive through this artificially created natural selection process, act in a combined and augmented way, since they use both parts of their “psyche”. Thus, the fears and those dark tendencies which loom down below come to the light and harmlessly build up a complete quantized model capable of communicating with the universe. Some religions have given a name for it, they call it “theosis”, the above scientific description is as close as it can get to this term, without necessarily meaning the same thing.

In conclusion, we may wonder whether in the end we are suffering because of the applications of a premature and to an extent “prohibited” knowledge. Is everyone going to stand up to the “Ubermensch” standards that this society sets? Apparently not! In this procedure of social Darwinism it is a minority of the “subjects”, which are going to acquire resilience to counter their “deadly” interactions with the environment they live in. In that cases the moral question comes up regarding to what would happen with those “subjects” that will not make it, i.e the majority of today’s population, will they become extinct like the dinosaurs for example or will they live to “serve their genetically evolved masters?”  This is far from being a conspiracy theory or a sci-fi scenario, it’s called bioethics and as a matter of fact similar “bioethical questions” like the one posed above are encountered frequently when a mother with three children wonders how will she be able to live through a financial meltdown. Or alternatively how a whole generation of qualified and scientifically trained youngsters at their early ‘30s will “swallow” the fact that they will have to work for nothing. How they are going to survive this, is apparently their problem, but this is what the external environment and the stimuli they receive dictate.

Apparently we end up at the conclusion that there can be no progress without the necessary ethical “infrastructure” both in terms of an individual and the societies, which he makes up. Knowledge ends up getting weaponized and in the end it is this knowledge, which was meant to do good, to be used for peaceful purposes, which can transform into a plague, providing the means for destruction of humanity along with the environment that accommodates us.

 

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China’s flank secured, as it was intended!

Ladakh

On April 15 China amazed almost everyone when a platoon crossed the border also known as Line of Actual Control (LAC) set after the Sino-Indian war of 1962 (although it was unofficially named as such in 1959) and penetrated deep inside Indian territory in the Ladakh region, thus escalating the tensions with India without any particular reason whatsoever, at least not as conspicuous as “The naked eye” could catch. Although China’s “restlessness” seemed to a great extent unnecessary, even dangerous, with ambiguous political objectives, if any, in truth China’s new leader knew exactly what he was doing and most importantly why he was doing it. Therefore the political objectives were clear, albeit only to the Chinese, who took the opportunity to test their Western-Influenced neighbor’s reactions in a “hypothetical situation” whereby China was perceived as an enemy by the West. That said, the Chinese took the matter a little further adding the notion of the “invader” in the already pitch black painted picture that the US and its allies are promoting. Truly, from a Chinese perspective, this Geostrategic “Chicken game” proved to be more fruitful than any verbal commitments China’s neighbor would be willing to present in the case-let us speculate-of an increased “activity” in the Pacific.

This gesture from China’s side, as said earlier, was perhaps necessary for the nation’s future maneuverings both diplomatically and/or militarily speaking. It was a necessity, bitter for sure, but a necessity nevertheless in order to measure what is broadly characterized as “The unstable factor”. India could play that role in the case of a conflict in the Pacific and China craved for reassurances, not verbal, but practical from the Indian side that they would not press at their flanks as a result of China’s preoccupation elsewhere. There are many questions and of course a lot of material for analysis in that case, but for us there’s only one question that dominates every other in this case. What if? What if India had reacted nervously? What if the Chinese platoon had been fired upon by India’s elite (in theory) special forces which were placed almost immediately opposite them. And what if things in general had escalated, something which is actually expected to occur under the globe’s current re-distribution of Geopolitical prerogatives? We should not forget that a couple of months ago the situation was tense in the Pacific due to North Korea, a situation which up to date has not returned to the pre-war rhetoric period of DPRK’s new leader Kim Jong Un. The industrialized zone which once posed as the sole unity between the North and the South has been closed after North Korea’s-still up to date-unexplained stance. Thus every tie between the two countries remains severed. The DPRK has already proclaimed war, there are no hotlines available for communication, even the 1953 armistice has been scrapped by the Norths, a stance which stands up to date. Thus, under those aforementioned circumstances a new Sino-Indian war was the least “desirable” scenario for both India and China, yet China amidst an inflamed, rather prolonged, period of hostility suddenly decides to cross the Ladakh and step into India’s territory, a fact of course which China has yet to admit, nevertheless if it was up to the Chinese to admit what belongs and what does not belong to them, then even the Pacific Ocean would be named after China (Chinese Ocean).

The Chinese forces remained in the region for three weeks as the two sides were “negotiating”, but in the backdrop of a generalized revisionism sweeping across the globe, someone has to ask this question: “What’s there to negotiate?” Yet the Indians were caught off guard showing their reluctance to go to war with China even when the Chinese forces established a supply route, an indication that they were there to stay. A “line” though is a “line” drawn on a map and as it was shown, end of the day no reason for India to go to war because of 15 km suddenly belonging to China. There was nothing there anyway except of snow and perhaps a “Yeti” or two, nevertheless China’s stance showed the West some interesting things regarding its mentality, elements which have to be studied and taken into consideration for the very near future

a) The Chinese crosses into India amidst growing tensions in the Pacific, sending the message that no matter how far “you think you have gone” we can go further.

b) It exhibited the obvious once again, which is its desire to expand towards every direction, North, West, East, South, you name it!

c) China crossed swords with a country, which is also in possession of nuclear weapons. As a matter of fact we could take the argument one step further and proclaim India as THE only country (after US and Russia) which is culturally mature enough in order to possess nuclear weapons and not threaten the world with a nuclear holocaust at the same time, unlike China and Pakistan for example.

d) The second message which China sent is its determination to fight a war (even a nuclear war) of two fronts if need be! Things would be much different had India responded with an artillery barrage killing every Chinese soldier who stepped foot on its territory, something that even China does not want, but it will if it has to in the future.

e) The above conclusion is China’s greatest strength and weakness at the same time as well as its modus operandi as a state which has acquired the means to expand and is eager to use them if need be in order to do so! We dare speculate that this kind of behavior is a pre-Geoeconomic attribute of a country’s stance, compared only to that of Germany’s prior to the Second World War. The Germans after having exited the grave economic situation they found themselves dug in prior to Hitler’s ascendance, as they were acquiring the means to show the world what a robust economy along with strong arms and good tactics could achieve, they could hardly restrain themselves from overexhibiting the might of the new Reich. 

We have reasons to believe that China’s behavior is following a similar patent. Daring, audacious, sometimes insane and definitely unpredictable, end of the day, though, dangerous! That said, if we had to draw a conclusion from the “mini shake up” with India, that would be that China is now ready to go after its goals in the Pacific. As a matter of fact, the Chinese do nothing to hide it, especially after the visit of China’s PM to India, right after the turmoil and their pledge to work under “friendly terms” in order to avert such sort of territorial crises in the future, something that definitely seems odd and unexpected to the observer. China was happy to find out that India would be kept in a short leash anyway, whatever the circumstances. Its administration’s officials were also happy so much so that they could not restrain themselves. It has happened before…it can happen again!

Syria, not a “Game Changer” anymore! Soon a “Game Over”!

PutinNetanyahu

The Syrian crisis new page which was turned the minute the IAF (Israeli Air Force) decided to bomb Syria twice in a time interval of two days, is threatening to escalate into a full scale war between the East and the West. DefenseHorizon along with numerous other well established websites had highlighted this aspect of “the war within a war” scenario from the moment Israel entered into this “equation”.
Now, after Benyamin Netanyahu’s visit to Moscow and Tuesday’s arrival of a contingent of 1,800 Marines and V-22 Ospreys at the port of Eilat in Israel, probably bound to Jordan as part of the broader force of the 22,000 men on stand by, a Western intervention lies far from the “red lines drawn” as a new perspective opens up, that of a preemptive strike from Israel’s part against the shipments of S-300 PMU2 and the SSN Yakhont in Syria. Specifically, the meeting between the President of the Russian Federation and Israel not only did not go well, but according to DEBKA it deteriorated into a tit for tat game of verbal threats in which Netanyahu warned Putin that the IAF would bomb both the S-300 and the Yakhonts and Putin rejecting this threat as “implausible”. Yet nothing is “implausible” given a)the severity of the situation, b) the involvement of Israel into a war, which is not of its own and c) US’s reluctance in the context of the strategy of “Confront and Conceal” to actively engage into a direct military intervention into Syria.

To break things up even more, DEBKA sources report that the Russians deliberately leaked information that the shipments of the S-300 missiles were already dispatched to Syria, thus annulling Netanyahu’s forthcoming plead towards Russia not to dispatch those missiles. The Russians, through Lavrov, used the best card they had on the table by stating that the S-300 is an Air to Air missile, thus its sail to Syria poses neither a threat to Israel nor any involvement whatsoever to the ongoing Syrian civil war as the only planes flying around is Assad’s. By consequence, what Sergei Viktorovick (Lavrov) did not have to add is the fact that both the S-300 and the Yakhong SS-N missiles would pose a threat only if a) there was a plan for a no fly zone or b) Israel decided to “test its luck” once again and bomb Syria’s territorial space. Objectively, this is an argument very difficult to confront as both cases stated above would lie outside international rules (there will never be a UN resolution for a No Fly Zone as long as China and Russia keep vetoing it) and thus in that case there would be only one rule: There are no rules.

President Putin broadened the defense “perimeter” of the A/A systems to include the Bajr Iranian forces, which as we have already stated, are trained to fight asymmetrical wars in urban environments. For all we know, given this data, and considering how bad this very important meeting went, there could be an outbreak of war between Syria and Israel anytime between the next hour to the next day or next week. To make matters worse, there are reports that elements of the Russian fleet, probably the ones that will constitute the Mediterranean fleet in the future, have passed the Suez Canal after taking two days to cross the Red Sea. Although those warships (Admiral Panteleyev destroyer, amphibious warfare ships Peresvet and Admiral Nevelskoi, the tanker Pechenga and the salvage/rescue tug Fotiy Krelov) left Vladivostok on March 19 and are bound to Limassol, sources like DEBKA place them in the future “hotzone” which apparently is going to be further inflamed by a potential preemptive Israeli strike.

On Thursday, the “Martyrs of the Abdel Qader al-Husseini Brigades” shelled Israeli territory reportedly marking Israel’s Independence Day (1948). The martyrs, though, on one hand are allegedly affiliated to the Assad regime, which has given them the green light to go ahead with a war of attrition from the Golan Heights as a response to Israel’s continuous bombing of Syria, on the other they claimed that “they are not celebrating” but instead “avenging the blood of their martyrs”, which-if true-lies definitely within the context of the war of attrition Assad has ordered. 

That said, the question now, which is being posed, is whether Netanyahu will give the Green light to go ahead with the bombing of the Russian shipment, something which could undoubtedly cause WWIII and compell the US to intervene whether it wants to or not. Perhaps this might be the reason why there has been an increase in troops numbers from the US bound to Jordan. Given the fact, though, that Netanyahu does not frequently say No to Obama and at this time Washington’s administration is amidst a chaos, from the scandals which have re-surfaced to devour it (AP scandal, Benghazi etc.), something like that would sound rather “improbable”. But then again, Israel’s behavior lately shows no signs of a standard motif towards handling crises, meaning that all of a sudden Netanyahu could go ahead and bomb the missiles upon their assembly, thereby causing the fury of Russia and turning the Middle East into a limbo.

The dangers are grave and they are there, probably enhanced by the Israel factor, which should have never entered “The Syrian Game”. The only thing that Netanyahu managed to do is to make Moscow even more rigid on the Syrian issue. If to all these we add the recent Spy Scandal which broke out in Moscow and “chilled” even further the US-Russian relations, then we can hardly claim that Putin is willing to play along, as decided. As a matter of fact, we don’t even know what was decided before we go into depth in order to analyze which part is going to be applied from Moscow’s side and which one is not.

For all we know, from the moment Israel decides to bomb the S-300 or even Syria again, Moscow will react, not of course through its 5-6 warships but through more serious means, not necessarily proxy but direct as well.

Russia’s Mediterannean fleet: Is that a “big deal” after all?

Medfleet

Following the explosions which occurred in the Turkish-Syrian borders along with the recent news coming from the Syrian front, we have “stumbled across” reports, opinions and in general elements that do not necessarily reflect the truth or at least the magnitude of the projected truth. Today, Sunday May 12, the Russian admiral Victor Chirkov announced that the process is underway for creating a permanent staff to run Russian fleet operations in the Mediterranean Sea. In other words the Mediterranean fleet, which is a fragment of the Soviet Union’s 5th Mediterranean Squadron which was disbanded in 1992, is almost ready.

So far so good, but the number of ships are estimated to be 5-6 plus, as DEBKA reports, nuclear submarines able to launch nuclear ballistic missiles. This is “The threat”, i.e 5-6 warships and possibly a submarine (nuclear OK). Now, based on those reports DEBKA analyzes: “The new permanent deployment is the next Russian step for safeguarding Bashar Assad’s regime in Damascus and deterring military attacks on his Hizballah allies and Iranian interests in their three-way bloc…”. Can this be done with 5-6 warships and is Russia ever going to use its nuclear deterrent…for Syria? We think that the above statement is slightly exaggerated. It is true that Moscow is re-surfacing in the Mediterranean region, a region the importance of which has been upgraded due to Greece’s, Cyprus’s and Israel’s newly discovered natural resources, but the symbolic presence-for now-of a flotilla comprising 6 ships has nothing to do with supporting Assad or saving Iran from a possible bombing campaign or even more absurdly aid Hezbollah. 

This is not the end of it, though. The distinguished DEBKA continues: “Given all these circumstances, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s chances are virtually nil of getting anywhere in his trip to the Black Sea resort of Sochi to persuade President Vladimir Putin to hold back advanced S-300 anti-air missiles from Syria”. 

Even if that is true-which is not-where does that conclusion stem from? Putin threatened to sell S-300 A/A missiles because Israel interfered in the Syrian crisis, not once or twice, but three times so far. Putin possibly wants to “shake off” Netanyahu a little bit and corner him by convincing him to stay put and let the diplomats work towards a political solution of this crisis. Aside, though, from DEBKA, which as mentioned is a distinguished website and most of the times its analyses are accurate and concrete, several other “experts” feel free to express their opinion anyway they want to. In Francois Picard’s debate today: “The world this week”, which is also serious and a source of esteemed guests expressing logical conclusions after having engaged in constructive debates, some “shots” were fired, out of the blue, in terms of this matter. One of the guests (Anne Penketh, Freelance journalist) stated: “I watched the press conference in Moscow and Kerry looked weak! He did look weak, because I do not know why he went out of his way to full over backwards to be nice with Vladimir Putin”.

First of all, people need to digest that Vladimir Putin is a legitimate leader, who was elected by the Russian people following a fully democratic process! Second, it happens that Russia has a naval base, or better stated THE ONLY NAVAL BASE in Syria and is in direct contact with the Assad regime in terms of support, both logistical and military including advisers on the ground.

The statement sounded so absurd that Francois Picard himself intervened and said “which is what David Cameron did when he visited Sochi”. Another guest (Christopher Dickey, Paris Bureau Chief, Newsweek Magazine and Columnist, The Daily Beast) asked rhetorically “what are they {Americans} gonna do? What’s their grand plan?”, explaining further that a military intervention from the US’s side would be counter-productive and would require more than just a few planes bombing elements of the Syrian army. They would also need advisers on the ground and nobody is in fact contemplating such kind of a solution at the moment except of “extreme Republicans” such as John McCain.

And then it was Craig Copetas’s turn to “fire away” after Francois Picard asked him whether Russians are hedging their bet or just saying one thing and doing another. “The Russians are actually making money…they have always done that as a forefront prior to any geopolitical decision, they always wanted to secure sale of future weapons!” and further commenting on Ms Penketh’s rather offensive comment he said more or less that while the Americans have the “hearts and mind” issue as a compass to make deals, Russians take this as a weakness and that’s the way they see it.

Well, with the exception of the impeccable analysis of Christopher Dickey, who grasped the idea of why this upcoming political solution is so important, the other two made comments, which were absolutely groundless and seemed more like speculation and talking over a country and a political system which they neither know nor understand. Mr Copetas’s comments may have been valid 30 years ago when the USSR was alive and a different political system ran through the country, but the way we see it, this is the Russian Federation and Sergei Lavrov travels from a diplomatic meeting to another in order to resolve the Syrian crisis, instead of “selling weapons”, that’s ROSOBORONEXPORT’S job by the way, not Lavrov’s.

Finally Anne Penketh’s comments failed to honor both her name and the job title she bears as a Freelance Journalist. It goes without saying that once one finds himself as a guest to such a prestigious debate, the individual has to be reasonable so as to explain to the people who are watching and are not as familiar with the subject as he/she is, what is actually at hand and how the situation is translated into real life terms. As it seems, though, nothing should be taken for granted given the circumstances.

We have explained before that we as well are no less confused than our colleagues when it comes to the Middle East! What is important, though, is to analyze the facts as they are reflected or will be reflected in this particular geographic area. This is the definition of a Geopolitical analysis i.e sterile of any emotions or opinions as opposed to a Geostrategic analysis in which various sides can debate over the ideas they are contemplating, provided of course that their opinions are reasonable and don’t spread panic and further haze to the already confused reader-viewer. Thus, Mr Copetas cannot just state that Russia is interested solely in arms sales, because if it was interested in that it would have sold those S-300 to Iran instead of cancelling off the deal. Ms Penketh on the other hand should learn to break free from stereotypes, which present Vladimir Putin as Ivan the Terrible to the West and Russia as a country which is stripped of Democracy. This is not an opinion, this is propaganda and that’s what the Nazis used to do in order to pass on their ideas. Of course John Kerry did the right thing by assembling many states, Russia included, so that a political solution may be achieved in the not so distant future. Moreover, he did not seem “Weak” nor was he perceived as such by his Russian colleagues, who by the way are not a bunch of an uncivilized barbarian warlords eager to spot a weakness on their interlocutor.

Last but not least, DEBKA! You cannot enter World War III with 6 ships and one or two submarines even if they are nuclear. If the Russians wanted to confront NATO in the region, wouldn’t they at least “bother” to bring in their only aircraft carrier? There is a proxy war going on, no doubt about that and there have been instances when the Spetsnaz were there fighting side by side with the Iranians on Assad’s side, but then again there have also been reports regarding Western commandos fighting alongside the rebels, not to mention of course all those times when “The Legion” was involved.

It remains to be seen, whether there will be a political solution on the Syrian crisis in a post-Assad era, however one thing is for sure! Russia and Israel have developed strong ties and the S-300 issue is just a leverage. No Hezbollah member is going to use them in order to shoot down Israeli jets! As for the Mediterranean flotilla, well we strongly think that its assemble is more relevant to the last year’s 9/11 incident in Benghazi when terrorist literally lynched the late ambassador Stephens. After all, the Americans have dispatched a contingent to check things on Libya as well, but with such a volatile situation in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, a nation’s citizens have to be protected and 5-6 ships are “just fine” for evacuation purposes. 

The Middle-Eastern limbo through our scope

Syriabomb

The recent Israeli strikes against targets on Syrian territory including both Hezbollah and units of the Republican Guard of President Bashar al-Assad poses itself as-if we want to use the terminology of Washington officials-a “Game Changer”! It’s not the Sarin gas or the other weaponized chemicals that the regime allegedly has, which troubles the analysts. It’s Israel’s behavior, which literally a) does not make any sense, b) underscores the spillover effects of the crisis to a much wider zone, c) is against any traditional Israeli doctrine which dictates not to get involved in messes such as civil wars or overthrow heads of enemy states. That said, one may grasp the fundamental reasons why every political analyst is bewildered by Israel’s sudden, unprovoked, unjustifiable and unanticipated series of strikes.

It is already known that Shiite elements-players are already involved in Syria along with terrorists or terrorist affiliated groups which fight alongside the Free Syrian Army (Assad’s opposition). Little is known, though, about the modus operandi of the later groups, which seems to have been gathered from broader geographic regions such as Kosovo, Libya, Chechnya even Somalia. The “contribution” of those groups is said to facilitate the resistance, but that’s not always the case, as there are many factions inside this heterogeneous mixture, which often clash with each other, thus creating something like a civil war within the civil war. The introduction of Hezbollah and the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Basij, who have been trained to fight in urban environments constitutes the reason behind what has given the Israelis the pretext to intervene in something that is meant to pose as a greater blunder than the First Invasion in Lebanon. In January, we saw a series of strikes against convoys carrying ballistic parts allegedly for Hezbollah and against a Syrian Military-Scientific facility, which was meant to be weaponizing chemicals. The later has been re-targeted during the most recent raid.

The case that is being formed, though, is that while Israel is throwing its pre-emptive cards on the tables, its real purpose is to introduce itself as a game changer in favor of the resistance which has seen its forces beaten by Assad and his allies. While Tel-Aviv sticks to the usual rhetoric that weapons such as A/A (Scud-D, Fateh 110 etc.) or WMDs will not be allowed to fall on Hebollah’s hands, yet what was bombed was not Hezbollah, but rather the elite forces of Assad stationed on Mount Qassioun, specifically the 4th division, which spearheads Assad’s defenses and is commanded by his brother Maher Assad. According to Israeli sources the dead rose up to 40, but according to some Arabic Media, they were 300 or more. Not that it matters, meaning that even if 10 Republican Guard troops were killed by an Israeli air raid, this would be a good enough reason for Syria and Iran to move on to a similar attrition warfare carried out in the post 1967 six day war. 

The information is flowing in massive quantities and the scenarios vary. Nevertheless there is a point that we have all missed so far. The fact that Iran chose the battleground of an upcoming military confrontation, and that battleground is not in Lebanon as many of us had thought, it is in Syria and it can stretch from the Golan Heights to the Turkish-Syrian frontiers. The fact that Israel has been debating for months (if not years) a strike against the Iranian nuclear facilities has triggered a militarily sophisticated response by Iran, which is luring Israel into Syria just like Marshal Zhukov lured the Wehrmacht into the Kursk enclave in 1943. Iran has moved a lot since it was mining the Gulf in the ’80s targeting American ships and cutting off free shipping passages and that is not all.

Netanyahu is following Obama’s orders BLINDLY not stopping for one moment to think of the ramifications of the military pathway he chose to walk. This is the third time that he actually does something “wrong” after being pushed by Obama. The first time was during the recent Gaza air strikes when the reserves were ready to move in and Obama kept stalling him until it was too late for an invasion. The second time was when he was pushed to call the Turkish Prime Minister, from the airport when Obama was leaving Israel, and apologize after three years and amidst an anti-Semitic hysteria caused by the ruling party in Turkey. It was allegedly important because Obama had prepped many fronts which were meant to invade in Syria and without an Israeli-Turkish cooperation this would have been rendered impossible. But then, it was proven that “Washington’s red line was a big con” quite similar to the unforgiven pretexts regarding mythical WMDs that the Saddam regime presumably possessed. When the UN found out that the Sarin gas was used by the rebels, the situation stalled further, not to mention that essentially Washington is backing up terrorists who use WMDs like Sarin (even in very small doses just to set Assad up), nevertheless there are no guarantees that since they have laid their hands on Sarin they will not try to orchestrate a terrorist strike in one of the US’s major cities! So, in addition to an international outlaw, the Obama administration has “Treason” written all over the White House. And as if those criminal actions were not enough, the administration encouraged Netanyahu to step up and intervene in a civil war, where even the rebels hardly know their “comrades in arms”.

As the crisis is likely going to develop in a tit for tat status, the Israelis might be tempted even to enter Syria, but that would be the gravest mistake since the blunders of 1973. No matter how many countries of the Arab League or even NATO hit Syria, once they deploy boots on the ground, they will have to stand against the Revolutionary Guard units trained in Urban Warfare and for once more they will have to cope with the asymmetry posed by the opponent. What will it be like then? Mogadishu? Vietnam? Afghanistan? Pre-Petraeus Iraq? And even if they win the conflict, who on earth is going to stop the protracted insurgency after the fall of Assad?

In the meantime Russia is playing its own game. DEBKA reports that it has “teamed up” with Hezbollah. Russia does not have the habit of “teaming up” with terrorist organizations, but what is doing instead is acquiring diplomatic leverage and so far it has the major players fighting on the side of the regime under its wing. That is why President Putin phoned Netanyahu while he was in China and again as DEBKA reports “gave him a dressing down”, why? Because he can! And because Netanyahu must understand that the more he gets involved in the crisis the more perplexed the situation is going to develop. And when he finally realizes that Obama does not want to save Israel, then he is going to play by Moscow’s rules, and that is something we have mentioned before in one of our extensive analysis.