SE Turkey lost to the Kurds-What happens with the Aegean?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Geopolitical situation in the Aegean sea is prone to changing, since the whole region is set ablaze by the Middle East limbo! One of Sun Tzu’s advise on the waging of war, was to take the battle where the enemy is not expecting you. But the Greeks are expecting, the question, though, is “are they the only ones?”

We read from http://www.defencenet.gr, Greece’s largest defense site that Selahattin Demirtaş (co-president of the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party of Turkey (BDP), the fourth largest political party in the country) claimed that the PKK has occupied about 300-400 km in the South Eastern Turkey. The political figure also stated that the outposts, which are still manned by soldiers of the Turkish army, are reached only by helicopters since the roads are blocked by PKK militants. With all the formalities kept, the statement was carried out inside the Turkish parliament with Selahattin Demirtas claiming that “the whole region from Semdinli to Tsukurtza is now in Kurdish hands”

“What operation???” he wondered in front of Turkish MPs, “as far as I’m concerned the Turkish army is not carrying out any military operations. They just say they do, but they don’t…!”

This is very suspicious and can only mean two things. The Turkish operational capabilities are in their minimum standards because of the purges against the military after the “Sledgehammer” and the “Suga” cases. It is to one extent probable that the Turkish army lacks, at the moment, the appropriate leadership in order to reoccupy the territory held by PKK, which is supplied by Syria and allegedly trained by Israelis (that is why since the Mavi Marmara incident the tactics of the PKK have changed radically, with the insurgents now looking more like a tactical army than guerrillas). Be that as it may, our opinion lies more within the sphere of a second more “shadowy” scenario.

Turks exhibit the pattern of “Brave with the weak and weak with the brave” on the battlefield. It is the same exhibited in the Minor Asian campaign, when Greeks almost occupied Ankara before the Turks led by Kemal Ataturk counterattacked! That said, and with the destabilization of the Geopolitical scenery in the region, it is very propable that the Turks have accepted-at last-the formation of an autonomous Kurdistan. After the operation Iraqi Freedom, the Kurdish role in Iraq has seen a gradual augmentation, but only recently and given the critical situation in Syria, have the Kurds been able to carry out a successful campaign in order to solidify their rights within Turkish soil. PKK’s insurgency has been a thorn at Turkey’s ribs since Kemal’s era and at the moment, the time seems like appropriate enough for them to grant the Kurds autonomy, but this does not come without further geopolitical rearrangements in the region.

The Turks have increased their presence along with their disputes in the Aegean sea. Greek island like “Farmakonisi” and “Agathonisi” are placed within the “Grey zones”, which Turkey refuses to accept as Greek soil since the “Imia crisis” in 1996. With the Turks losing ground to the South East an imminent attack to the West does not seem anymore-if it ever seemed-like an “unthinkable scenario”. To make things worse, EYP, Greece’s Secret Services have been able to confirm that the fires which burned down Chios and Rhodes were not accidental. As we had revealed in a previous analysis, here at Focus Dynamics, the sites, which are now burned down posed as ideal spots for artillery, in case the Turkish landing ships tried something hostile. Now, this is a luxury-amidst others-that the Greeks do not possess.

More suspicions are raised, given the fact that the Prime Minister Antonios Samaras, during a recent meeting of KY.SE.A (Something like a National Security Council) raised the army’s intervention role at all levels, namely executive, governmental, in terms of defense issues, security and military personnel, a radical decision, which can be apprehended as an effort to gradually restore the army’s role to its pre 1974 status (after the end of the junta, the Greek army was stripped of may of its prerogatives and initiatives in matters such as the ones mentioned above).

SO what is being played here? Did this occur because of the situational awareness and the admittance by the political branch that they won’t be able to contain a potential upcoming crisis? Of course this is part of the story, but it is also probable that as the army lost its privileges in 1974 because of the invasion in Cyprus, thus its role can be augmented in case of a new invasion, which can result in territorial losses, especially in the Aegean, where the rich natural resources lie. It is also highly possible, and as a matter of fact it fits an already known pattern, that as Americans played a decisive role in the establishment of the 1967 junta, they may actually try it again, this time for different and for important reasons first and foremost to ensure that the areas, which are rich in Natural Resources do not fall under Russia’s exploitation zone (through Germany’s financial domination on Greek soil). The second reason is the Eurozone crisis and Germany’s growing hegemony over the South, which threatens to cut off American interests in the region. 

The same happened in Egypt, of course the US could not sustain the power exerted by the military, forever, but this is another story. The fact remains, though, that a “Balkan Spring” is going to solve numerous problems (Turkey as well, which is not going to retain its territorial integrity for long), regardless of the danger of creating-as in every intervention-new ones.

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Banks-The modern “Nephilims”-Disorder and cure through state-market capitalism

Myth has it that we were once “visited by Gods”, who were “loved” by mortal women and so mortal women gave birth to “Giants”, the so called “Nephilims”. In the recent global financial reality the myth has become a s0bbering nightmare, as in this parallel Banks have become as dangerous as the mythical “Nephilims” literally eating people, states, national and private wealth”. Financial Gurus state that capitalism is dead and dis functional, but unless they have other motivations in insisting into something so outrageous, then they are wrong. Indeed there are many “wizards”, whose opinions count in modern markets. Most of them have found themselves wealthier after the financial Tsunami that hit the US in 2008 and they are definitely much wealthier now with the raging European Crisis. They sort, they sell, they buy, they invest in Credit Default Swaps, they influence newspapers and opinions and it turn modern financial stock markets look like “The British weather” one moment sunny, the other stormy.

What it should be realized, though, especially in those moments of despair is that states are still alive. We don’t know of course for how much longer, but they still breath and the political leader have some room to maneuver. Indeed, as Alessio Rastani so outrageously stated, that the “hawks” are dreaming about a financial crisis to get richer and that modern leaders are nothing more than well paid civil servants, this is true to some extent. But, if those “civil servants” used at least this minimum-for the place they possess-power in order to counter the anarchocapitalism, which has obliterated the Middle class, then they would be no more Rastanis, or Soros or Paulson or Rubinis, to name just a few.

The critical question is what can they do? Seemingly it is impossible for them to take decisions before consulting with centers of policy making, yet solutions do not always have to be radical and outside the context of the already existing laws of Democracy, even this Western type post-Reagan Democracy, which may have destroyed “an empire of evil” yet created another, which is viral and highly contagious. As it is well known the human body has microbes, even pathogens, that solely exist there for reasons of competition. They are actually considered an elemental barrier in the organism’s defense. To put it plainly, with the microbes that exist on the human skin it is highly complicated other microbes to invade as if they do so, they will have to face…competition. So, how is that related to the banks and the contemporary “societal cancer”? Well, destroying the “cancer cells” may “kill the patient”, but if states decide, always in the context of free market competition, to create state institutes, which will have the role of modern rogue banks, then “the patient” may live to see groundbreaking results. Most analysts suggest that people should take the streets and “fight” the banks and strangely enough this is not considered as dangerous as “communism”. On the other hand, each time there is a conversation about the state owning certain institutes or property at all, then the tag of “Communism” follows. Market capitalism is not that useless as they present it, no matter how many experts gather up and state this. Laissez-faire and deregulation have proven useless and dangerous elements, but there is still plenty of room for hope. Germany has to one extent been shielded amidst the Geoeconomic hurricane, as only 10% of her banks (the so called Landesbanken) are exposed to the laissez-faire “casino royal” tactics. The rest of them are savings banks and this is something that is constantly “omitted” from conversations on the European crisis. The reason behind this is not a matter of this analysis, although it is well know and for many “experts” it falls within the sphere of conspiracy theories, although Germany’s appetite for peripheral hegemony is a staggering Geopolitical reality.

With institutions founded and funded by the state with the sole purpose of refunding the middle class, through low interest loans for example, the “big banks” are going to react. But it is not necessary that this fight will be carried out between the states themselves and the banks. It can be easily fought at a proxy level, with those state funded institutions competing legally and within the Democratic framework that Western Democracies still possess. Thus, there will be no “nuclear detonations”, no going back to the “Stone age” scenarios, no defaults and no debt shaking stories. Just pure free market competition.

Russian military reforms-Aviation-Impossible to read “Putin’s Pokerface”

President Putin opened up a series of discussions through meetings, which started in early June, concerning the implementation of the military reforms, a fact which has proven to be a serious “headache” for the Russian politicians and of course the Russian armed forces. The 2008 conflict in Caucasus showed a series of shortfalls in the Russian armed forces, suggesting that if reforms did not start taking place soon, then in the case Russia would have to defend its soil, it would be literally unable to do so. The equipment was absolutely obsolete, the communications between the units almost non-existent (at some point during the conflict, a Russian officer had to use his mobile phone to call a unit), as non-existent were necessary systems such as a proper IFF (Identification Friend or Foe). The Russians initiated a general mobilization, based on the “all out” Soviet Doctrine of en mass mobilization of forces. This fact had negative consequences on the campaign itself. Roads were clumped, friendly planes were shot down and unacceptable casualties (like the soldiers who lost their lives as a result of road accidents or mishandling equipment) occurred. The “bear was awaken”, but it looked kind of “drowsy” and “old fashioned”, at least at the military level, thus a series of reforms were initiated “effective immediately”. Russia’s biggest problem was her vast army, consisting of more officers than soldiers. Most of the divisions were “skeleton ones” as they were manned only to some instead of full extent. There were also problems associated with guarding obsolete equipment stored in Soviet depots. All these factors had to change and it went without saying that as the old Rome was not built in a day, thus the army of the New Rome would not be built in days or months either.

On the bright side, Russia possessed Soviet time blueprints of projects that were never materialized, due to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The time had come for those projects to become attached to those modernization efforts. In this section we are going to analyze Russia’s most ambitious aviation reforms. We should not that overall, Russia intends to spend up to 777 billion dollars in a decade for her armed forces, an astronomical amount, provided of course that oil prices remain at a relatively high level.

The Sukhoi T-50 PAK FA stealth fighter has been the most popular (and secret) project with regard to aviation. Its construction marked a new era for the Russian Aviation, which entered the “stealth era” of the fifth generation fighters. According to Russian sources it has recently passed with flying colors its tests for aerial refueling, while more tests are under way. In 2011 in the air show exhibition, the “PAK” performed mere fly overs over the spectators, without engaging into acrobatics, like the Su-35 for example. The reasons behind this was that first the Russian government did not want to exhibit publicly its aerodynamic skills and second, according to statements, it was not yet ready to do so. There was an incident with one of the engines going ablaze, but we presume that every new model has its “baby illnesses” as General Heinz Guderian first used the term to describe the malfunctions in the Tiger and Panther Panzer models.

The secrecy behind those projects, concerning both the Sukhoi Stealth Fighter and the development of the Stealth Bomber (Tupolev PAK DA) has led to some misleading and rather confusing information regarding how much Russia is willing to spend on defense armaments. The initial figure was 777 billion overall (Financial times) but after a visit at the President of the Russian Federation webpage we read the following:

“…As a result of this work {modernization framework} a plan was drafted to modernize the military industrial complex at a total cost of nearly three trillion rubles [$100 billion]. Now, the Government of the Russian Federation must make sure that this plan is carried out….”

as for the air force:

“…We will be bolstering the aviation of the Armed Forces qualitatively and quantitatively by 2020. I already stated at a meeting with flight crews of the military base we are visiting, that we are planning to budget over four trillion rubles [$130 billion] toward these goals, while a bit under three trillion (some 2.9 trillion) rubles for the entire military-industrial complex. But aviation, the state armaments procurement for aviation needs, will get more than four trillion. As you see, it accounts for almost one quarter of expenditures withinthe entire state defense procurements…”

The maths are not correct. If 1/4th is more than 4 trillion rubles then the overall spending for Russia’s defense is 16 trillion rubles (more than 520 billion dollars), so we are a bit confused here as to the exact amount that Russia will be spending until 2020 for her armed forces. There are definitely secret funds allocated in areas and resources we are not aware of, but that is only natural and not the point of this analysis.

The point to some extent is, from what has been published and seen so far, the degree to which Russia’s air force (specifically for this analysis) can work as the cornerstone of Russia’s defense. It is almost certain that the PAK for example has been successful so far, but what about other projects such as the Tupolev PAK DA or even the forgotten “eagle” Russia’s SU-47 Berkut. Is the Tupolev program a whim or a necessity? Is Dmitry Rogozin right when he states that in the modern era and given the potential of the multistatic radars, there are no absolute “Stealth” guarantees? Finally, is Russia in some way, being too modest about her conventional weapon capabilities, is sharing just a slice of the aces she holds in the drawer?

Concerning the bomber project, Rogozin is right to one extent, yes no aircraft has 100% stealth capabilities, this was proven for the first time in Serbia when the first F-117 was shot down. This “bubble” was burst back then, but what about now? Is this a reason not to build stealth bombers at all? The issue is more connected to the “ballistic age” rather than the Stealth “era”, as from Koroliev’s time and the construction of the ICBM missiles, the role of the bomber became less important. But based on the same philosophy, we can argue that the anti-ballistic missile defense technology has progressed thus far as well, as to confer the necessary security for a state’s defense! So, in the end what is more important? The research on a bomber, which may be tracked eventually or the research of missile type technology, which will make the projectiles non interceptable? Surely, the Chinese have chosen the path of missiles by constructing “deadly Aircraft carrier killers”, even though China as well has invested money into developing its own J-20 stealth fighter (even though it is commonly known that the aircraft is an intermediate of the F-22 and the T-50 PAK FA, constructed by “stolen technology” and reverse engineering methods).

We presume that at the doctrinal level each country pursues different strategies in order to safeguard its borders, but in the case of Russia the construction of the Tupolev is a matter of “whim” as well in the context of Putin’s thoughts that “My dog is bigger than yours”. Yet, it is extraordinary, that the blueprints for the project also existed from the Soviet times, drawn by an Italian communist who fled to the USSR. Still, though, the distance between a blueprint and the actual construction “is measured in light years”, as for the cost, well this is even more relative than time itself, as Einstein described, with the biggest example being the “endless” project of the F-35. Thus, we conclude, in terms of the Russian bomber, that the choice is a double edged sword, which can prove out to be on the one hand augmenting for Russia’s air delivery methods of cruise missiles, on the other, though, as a worst case scenario, a total waste of money.

In terms of the non-stealth fighters and transport airplanes, the webpage of the President of the Russian Federation states that:

“…It is nevertheless imperative to modernise our strategic Tu-160 and Tu-195MS missile carriers. Incidentally, we have already introduced a new airborne long-range cruise missile to arm the warcraft…”, obviously Vladimir Putin is referring to the newly built and still tested Bulava missile.

“Second, the tactical component of the Air Force will also require serious renewal. Here, I will note the modernization of the Su-25SM fighters, the delivery of new frontline Su-34 strike aircraft, and of course the fifth generation frontline fighter aircraft. Besides, in the next five years, we should implement the A-100 early radar warning aircraft project…” The Su-34 is mainly used for bombing operations, although it is considered as a multi-role aircraft. In general and from a historical perspective, Russians have always had the upper hand in aviation in terms of the aerodynamic structures of their jets. They have always been able to execute “impossible” maneuvers and lest we forget the very well known “Cobra maneuver”, which is executed while the aircraft enters the “stall phase”, this was firstly carried out by Russian jets, then followed the F-22 performance. In terms, though, of electronics and modern aviation technology, undoubtedly Americans have the upper hand, not because of the extensive R&D, but also because Russians have just begun to modernize their military, so it is almost impossible to catch up with the progress of NATO!

“…Overall, by 2020, we plan to increase the share of modern aviation technology in our military to 70 percent. As I said at our previous meeting, which was devoted to the 100th anniversary of Russian Air Force, over 600 new airplanes and 1,000 new helicopters should be delivered to the military units in the nearest future, and that’s not including the upgraded systems. Serious attention will be given to modernising airfield infrastructure as well. Over the last four years we have brought about seven new modernised airfields into operation per year – 28 in four years – and another nine airfields are being renovated now in Severomorsk, Chkalovsky, Engels, Aktyubinsk, Krymsk, Yeysk, Lipetsk, Chkalovsk in Kaliningrad Region, and Korenovsk. Within the framework of their modernisation, contracts have already been signed worth over 40 billion rubles [$1.3 billion]. The work is underway, and I hope that it will be fulfilled on time, with high-quality results…” Again here we should make a notation regarding the helicopters and the airfields. Choppers are of two types namely the Ka family (Ka-50, Ka-52) and the Mi-28 equipped with Night vision “gadgets”, a luxury the Russians did not have back in 2008. Those two types of attack helicopters are almost the same, the reason behind the choice of both of them was that the company which was producing the Ka family, before it was selected by the state, was at a state of bankruptcy, so the state projects left them plenty of room to breathe. Now regarding the airports:

“…Many airfields had to close down as well. Out of the pre-reform 245 airfields, 27 are currently on active use, that following the reforms almost 90% of the airfields were disbanded. Given the fact that the numbers that are presented are more or less an estimation and that the reform program involved a big degree of secrecy (probably due to the nuclear weapons), the fact that 90% of a country’s airfields “Close down” is the least to say “suspicious”. That said, it would not be surprising if not all of those airfields were in fact abandoned for good or there are still some military facilities that remain active, albeit operating under different standards and in a very different way…” as written by one of Focus Dynamics researchers Alexandros Boufesis, in his pending publication on the Russian Georgian war of 2008.

The Su-35 BM, although it is not mentioned in Putin’s speech, still plays a very important role as a 4.5 generation model, non stealth, but allegedly able to compete even with the US’s Raptor. It should be reminded that during an iconic dogfight between Greek F-16s and the Raptor, one of the Greek pilots managed to “lock” the F-22, causing a profound embarrassment to the US air force. Specifically the Raptor’s back compartment (near the engines) was more “visible” than the rest of the jet, that is why the Greek pilot locked it. If that is not fixed then it can be shot down in a potential dogfight, especially if the opponent wears a Helmet Mounted Display (Greek pilots are also using this system, which allows them to lock their opponents even if they are not at their 12 o clock line of sight, as each time the pilot turns his head he can lock the “boogie” anywhere within his optical field”. The Su-35 was proposed by the Russians to the Greek Military Aviation. From a research point of view, the operation of the Su-35 with NATO aircrafts will put to the test the theory of hybrid warfare, allowing fighters of two different manufacturing philosophies to operate together, thus having the chance to maximize effectiveness and operational capabilities. This, though, has slight chances of happening for obvious political reasons.

Finally, we promised that we would extend further our argument on the Su-47, the Berkut (eagle). Alexandros Boufesis’s point of view is written below (again from the upcoming monograph on the Russian-Georgian war of 2008)

“…We should also not forget the “mythical” Su-47 “Berkut” fighter, which had inverted wings and it could thus sustain heavy “Gs” without falling into a “Stall”. This project was allegedly abandoned, as the production expenses were “astronomical”, but still one cannot but wonder: Was it only one “Berkut” that was manufactured or was it a whole air regiment, which in the case of a war will come out of nowhere spreading shock and awe like the T-34 and KV-1 “Giant Tanks” did during World War II…?”

“…Yet, the most crucial point lies within the field that Russians have not revealed, thus conveying a message in their own way of: “Regardless of what we exhibit in terms of deterrence, you should be more afraid of what we do not exhibit and it may come as a brutal and deadly surprise, should you choose to provoke the bear again”. In light of recent events, it is either that the message is not conveyed properly or it falls on deaf ears…”

The military aviation analysis closes with the need of modernizing the Tu-95 and the Tu-160 Blackjacks, which have traditionally carried the cruise missiles armed with conventional or nuclear warheads. On July 4, Tu-95s were used to violate the US’s airspace, thus they are both very active and still very useful to convey Russia’s messages to her rivals.

Overall, the Russians appear to rely on their Nuclear deterrence capabilities, with Putin stating that they are not pursuing a new arms race. Maybe they don’t have to, it is possible that through the Meseberg treaty signed by Russia and Germany, Germany gives the Russians the know-hows for developing their conventional arsenal. Or maybe they are indeed in an arms race, probably not because there’s an issue of defending the “Rodina”, but because of the fact that the Russians have to defend their rights in the Arctic ocean and it goes without saying that the nukes cannot be used in every single case as a threat without being backed up by a proper conventional arsenal.

 

Another justification-The Golden Standard-Written just a few hours after our post by FT

 

 

 

We prayed we were wrong, yet we were not! The Republican party has decided to propose a re-link of the dollar to gold price. This is undoubtedly the right thing to do, but doing the right thing sometimes is not as good as doing it in time as well. We all pray that Fort Knox still has gold, or at least some gold in order for this reform to start putting the markets into a state of less entropy and anarchy, but…! This move indicates that the dollar as a global reserve is being questioned, both in the framework of finance and Geopolitics. With the recent Arab Spring demonstrations spreading out in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain and the anti-American sentiment booming in the Middle-East, noone is certain if the deals of the past will still be in effect next year, next month, next day (?) The US government is buying oil from Saudi Arabia and pays back in American bonds. The interests are then invested in American companies, which historically took up the task to “modernize” (this is a really soft term we use here for the radical modernization which took place in Saudi Arabia, as before American companies took over, they used goats to carry their garbage) the country’s Infrastructure and as a matter of fact this was a really fair and ingenious deal for both sides. On the one hand Saudi princes were living the Western way of life, enjoying the pleasures of civilization and on the other the Americans took a deep breath after the oil crisis of the ’70s but…but…but…well nothing lasts forever! It is notable that the Reagan government was the one, who pushed the Saudis to drop the oil prices in the ’80s, thus facilitating the collapse of the ex-USSR during the so called “second cold war” before Gorbachev took over and implemented the Perestroika and the Glasnost reforms. His predecessors (as Reagan himself), namely Andropov and Chernenko, were not the type of people who cared much about resolving amicably the two countries’ pressing and deep rooted problems. Lest we forget that the term “empire of evil” was first used by Reagan and Thatcher during the “second cold war” era.

A financial new-old order may look radical and to some extent discomforting for many Wall Street oligarchs, who have been plundering the US (and the world) for many years using paper to build up their capital portfolios, but as Milan Kundera stated it in German, Es muss sein (It has to happen). We judge that such an alteration in those extra radical times, may have the same repercussions to the US, as Perestroika had during Gorbachev’s era (The USSR was dissolved), but still if the US does not “stop the music” now, Europe or the emerging markets will and then noone can (or dares) predict the consequences. In Focus Dynamics we approve the Republican’s party initiative and as a matter of fact we salute it, we should note though that things henceforth will not look that rosy for the US. It will take many years for the country to regain its place in leading the World, but let’s not forget that this came to be primarily through the cultural and political characteristics of the US, the innovative spirit of the people and the chances businessmen and entrepreneurs enjoyed before the coming of this dark era!

 

“The rule of Gold”, a safe haven or a recurring theme?

Investors around the world find themselves in a new frenzy buying up Gold shares along with commodities such as food and oil, thus building up a market dynamic capable of bringing the world to its knees, definitely with serious Geopolitical repercussions. If the QE packets were never implemented, the commodity prices would be much lower and we would not pay food as if it was a luxury we cannot afford. This is a serious accusation of course, but we will back it up with facts. So, what the “Wall Street Gentlemen” were doing while “Ben” was making the money flow, was to buy food and oil stocks, boosting their prices to “astronomical” values and then when the QE travesty was about to be stopped, they were cashing out and then “withdrawing to the safe haven of American bonds”. Those are the claims of the top analyst Panos Panagiotou, being nothing more than the mere truth, the modus operandi of today’s markets in a post Cold-War era, which resembles everyday more and more, Paris before the outbreak of the French Revolution. “Democratic values and the Arab Spring”, well the truth is not so “romantic”, let alone realistic. Should the world prices at food not had been skyrocketed, the Middle East countries would not suffer the extra heavy poverty repercussions, which led to the ignition of the biggest threat since the Yom Kippur crisis. Mubarak may have been a dictator, but he is not the one, who is militarizing Shina now, demonstrating a polemic rhetoric resembling that of Nasser many many years ago. Mohamed Morsi is the one who is doing it, the “Big Democrat”, elected by “The people”, the same people, who pursue the Jews living in Egypt not in a less dreadful way than the Nazis did.

Beyond, though, the extremely serious backfires, which the political regimes have to face, another major danger “lures in the catacombs of Fort Knox. It is highly questionable whether Fort Knox holds the necessary Gold reserves (if it holds any reserves besides a little gold dust here and there) in order for the American economy to react to a potential shifting of the global financial rules. Let us note, that since 1971 the dollar dominated the markets, thus displacing gold totally as the most reliable reserve. We believe that our worries do not lack a rational base. As:

  •   The Russian Central Bank recently bought another 18.5 tons of Gold raising its reserves to 936.2 tons overall (!!!). Gold shines impressively, but we doubt that it was bought in such large quantities because of this particular feature of the precious metal.
  • The “King of the Vultures”, George Soros, bought another 50 million Euros worth of Gold, thus reducing his portfolio in “paper stocks”. Is Soros getting old and wants to take something real in the afterlife with him? Again we do not think so!
  • Bernancke has not yet started FED’s new QE sequel (Something like the Chainsaw massacre or The new “24” series starring Kiefer Sutherland as Jack Bauer, trying to stop financial terrorists from flushing the world back to Stone Age) yet. So unless “The hawks” are aware of something that we are not, then the Gold frenzy is not backed up by the same reasons they were stated above (Cheap money flow)
  • Germany closes its pincers around the South, with Greece ready to give up territorial sovereignty in order to put an end to the almost three year tragedy, which so far has the cost the life of more than 3000 citizens (suicides). Soon Spain, Italy and Portugal will fall and the EU is going to be turned de jure into a Germanic Federation.

Taking all of the above into consideration, our estimation is that there is soon going to be a Geoeconomic rearrangement with the rule of Gold appearing once again as a reserve. Should that happen, and we honestly pray that we are wrong, the US financial system will collapse instantaneously, as, even if Fort Knox does prove out to have some Gold reserves, those reserves will not be enough to counter the new Eurasian financial typhoon. Russia is now in the WTO, cash will be flowing in the country vastly sooner rather than later. Germany, will create an open market with Putin’s Eurasia and Russia securing the exploitation of Natural Resources in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Israel, is going through a new dangerous period, with its survival as a nation being disputed by the radical elements popping up like mushrooms all over the region. It is only natural that it will seek new patrons in the broader Geopolitical rearrangements that are taking place as we speak. Putin’s recent visit there and Netanyahu’s enthusiasm over his visit (quoting enthusiastically: “Gospadin Presidient, Mr President”) are not just diplomatic maneuvers, Israel’s relations with the US are going through a profound crisis! If this study by our Research Center is wrong, then we will happily stand corrected with a relief which will be shown in future essays. If we are right, though, this means that we will live in times, when nothing will be the same again as the United States will stand helpless and unable to revert its Geopolitical isolation and the fall of a once mighty empire.

Turkey and the method of driving its opponents to despair-The hot zones of Greece

Turkish politics have hardly changed since the Ottoman times, not to mention since the butchering of the Greeks living in Smirni (now Izmir) and the genocide of the Armenians. History and time in general are factors, which are considered able to change both the political factors and the people themselves, but that is hardly the case for Turkey or Germany or Japan (especially with the events being unfolded in the Eastern Pacific region regarding Japanese claims of islands belonging to three different countries namely Russia, South Korea and China). But the case of Turkey is the one worth studying at the moment, outside the context of any historically linked prejudice. The last few days fires have burned out the Greek island of Chios, lying into very close proximity to the Turkish borders. It is not the first time that MIT-Turkish Intelligence Services- have pursued this method of sabotaging hostile territory, as in 1997 (2007 as well), Turks admitted that they were the ones lighting fires all over Peloponnese (South Greece). There is a great difference though between then and now. Back then Turkish intentions were just to sabotage Greece’s territory and cause damage during the tourist season. Now, though, the case is quite different. As the Greek site http://www.olympia.gr reports the Northern part of the island (Chios) is not favorable for disembarkation operation, whereas the Southern part is, provided of course that the forest are burned down. The Greek post associated with the issue brings up another very logical reason behind the fires. Once the fires burn down everything in the inner parts of the island, artillery units will be unable to find safe haven on the island in case they have to defend it. As we are informed by the Greek magazine “Defense Bible” (2011-12 edition) the new artillery units M109G3A2 (photo) would augment the country’s defense capabilities in the mainland, whereas on the islands older units like M109A1B, M109A2 and M109A5 would be following their transport from the mainland. According to many modern military theorists the role of the artillery and the tank is outdated, but this theory lies only in the context of Counter Insurgency tactics adopted in the war against terror. Artillery means enhanced fires power, a factor which can determine the outcome of a conflict carried out between two countries (Greece-Turkey for example), both using heavy armored vehicles! Still, though, artillery units need shelter no matter how sophisticated and state of the art, they remain “slow moving beasts”, which once spotted they can be destroyed. Further to our worries regarding an upcoming standoff between those two ancient foes (Greece and Turkey) pose the propaganda and information war carried out in Western Thrace, where the Turks claim that not only is there a minority living there, but they are “repressed by the Greeks as well”. The reveal of the 2005 “Sledgehammer” operation designed by the now imprisoned Turkish Generals (Erdogan used the scandal to contain them, as being Kemalists, thus a thorn in his Islamic government) has added importance to the area of “Western Thrace”, but still, this region poses a secondary target for the Turkish Armed Forces, with the first one being the highly enriched in natural gas regions of the Eastern Aegean sea, now belonging to Greece.

In 1996 the two countries came in the brink of war over disputed rock islands, “Imia” in Greek, “Kardak” in Turkish. The late Richard Holbrooke acted as a diplomatic mediator, achieving an aversion of an all out war between those countries. It is notable what Hobrooke had said back then, “I can’t believe that they are going on war over a rock”, but as it came out to be there are many “rocks” around the world marking a broader Independent Economic Zone for each state, in other words areas, which can be rich in Natural Resources. With issues over alleged “Grey zones” brought up by Turkey concerning the Aegean Sea, Greeks do not have the luxury to start drilling in order to ease off their debt pain. Turkey has illusions that it can reconstruct its Ottoman strength and instill control over the broader Middle East. For reasons still unknown, the country is left to believe whatever it wants, but once the drums of war begin to sound, it is extremely likely that Turkey will find itself between hammer and anvil as both US and Russia are eager to lay their hands on those natural resources. Last but not least  both the US and Israel support the idea of creating an independent Kurdistan, thus it is only a matter of time before Turkey decides to try something “impulsive” in order to further “press the hot zones”, but in that case it is highly likely that it may hasten its unavoidable fragmentation. 

“Surprising epiphany”-It’s fun to be right, but only when you are quoted

 

After the publication of our opinion regarding the prospect of a negative Geopolitical impact Assange’s case may have in Latin America, we were pleased to see that other blogs in the “blogosphere” not only agreed with us, but went into the trouble of further elaboration. We are pleased to see that such a new website, like ours, draws much attention, but we cannot say the same when our opinions are published unquoted. Of course, neither Assange nor his foolish repercussions lie in our property in any Trade Mark or Copyright whatsoever, however the fact remains that long before Assange’s speech we, in the context of expressing our opinion, had first warned against broader repercussions, which would span into Latin American territory. We do not wish to use any legal means now or in the future to protect our ideas or “inspirations” or the necessary maturity that we possess in order to venture into making as accurate predictions as we can. We believe in some unwritten rules like “word of honor”, alien notions to some people, yet very meaningful for us here at Focus Dynamics. We would like to take this opportunity to congratulate “Politi-size Magazine” on their article regarding Julian Assange and the repercussions of his actions in Latin America. We actually consider it as an act of support even though the most respected authors omitted to quote on both of our posts regarding Mr Assange’s case. At the end of the day, we are all busy handling the tons of information coming to us hour by hour, so we guess it is only “natural for some mistakes, like not quoting other people’s opinions, to occur”! We still think, though, that their analysis is important enough and it should be republished! Enjoy!

http://politi-size.com/2012/08/20/julian-assange-ecuadors-diplomatic-savior/

{SOURCE} Politi-size Magazine (http://politi-size.com)

 

 

 

Assange’s speech-“Throwing more oil in the fire of anarchy”, justification of our Research Center

 

Julian Assange’s speech just a few hours ago designated that this man’s role cannot be confined into “journalistic” (We so apologize to real journalists about the term we are using, although it is in brackets). Julian Assange is a “loose cannon” now indeed having adopted an active role in the Latin American affairs as we, firstly in Focus Dynamics Research Institute had predicted.

“…This Friday there will be an emergency meeting of the foreign ministers of Latin America in Washington DC to address this situation. And so I am grateful to the people and governments of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Venezuela and to all of the other Latin American countries who have come to defend the right to asylum…”

So, in other words Mr Assange would like to thank those, who, because of him, have engaged in the lunatics’ call of the new dimension of “Free speech” aka ESPIONAGE! Victor Suvorov was a spy, Mitrokhin was condemned as a leaker, Kim Philby, Guy Burgess, so what happened to the term “espionage”, did it just disappear into the new vocabulary of politically correct terms? The sole fact, the terrifying reality, which is no other than the incapability of Assange supporters to grasp the reason behind his prosecution, is indeed one of the most terrifying events in Global Politics. And it is considered as such, from our point of view, because “a spy” handles Top Secret information, leaking it anywhere he wants, whereas the new hybrid (alas) that we have come up with is not “a spy”, it is a vessel, which “defends free speech and human rights”. For those who fail to grasp it, this is an open defiance of the sovereign Nation States. The word spy indicates that there are indeed sovereign states against which an individual can act, whereas in a “FREE WORLD” there are no spies, only “Defenders of free speech” and other-up to recently- very serious ideas such as Democracy, Love, Freedom and the list goes all the way down to blend all of them in an establishment of a new form of anarchy.

We repeat our points stressed in the previous article about Assange, under no circumstances do we wish to justify the killing of innocents, the plots against other nations’ governments and all those issues wikileaks are all about, but…but…but! Those things have been going on forever and when it comes to State Secrets, this is an open question of whether the State does preserve the prerogative to classify information as TOP SECRET! In addition, even if we do acknowledge that Wikileaks has offered “gifts of freedom to the people”, then why didn’t they expose the actions of the German troops in Afghanistan, who were accused of butchering women and children after having consumed large quantities of alcohol? And as a matter of fact this was the reason why US AND UK ARMY OFFICIALS, AVOIDED TAKING GERMAN CONTINGENTS WITH THEM WHILE OPERATING THERE! The sole reason why those documents were leaked in the first place was to further harm the image of the US, already severely damaged by a President (George W. Bush) whose legitimacy is questioned from the moment he “won” the elections to the day he gave the office to his successor. And regarding the issue of the “Neocon cabinet” there is much to be told as to the whats and whys, which lie behind the specific policy which was adopted (We do have serious evidence that this policy was influenced by “Other states” or “State actors” who have infiltrated into the US, while serving an ultra-nationalist purpose of “some states” that today are allegedly “Burdened” by the “European Crisis”).

In conclusion, the role South American states are assuming is “a gateway” to some new problems the US has to face. We have already emphasized that there is a great danger the US to be fighting wars in order to keep its peripheral hegemony in the future in the American continent. But, who are we? After all, we neither desecrate temples in the name of “political reaction”, nor leak any TOP SECRET documents via the internet, so it does not surprise us very much the fact that our voice is still one “crying out in the desert”. As for the TV channel Russia Today, which has hosted Mr Assange’s show, the show they have hosted has backfired on them and on the Kremlin. The Russians have to learn not to “feed hands that bite anyway”. Unfortunately, the tactics of the soft politics require extensive planning on who to trust and why. We are, thus, sorry to hear the RT’s “child” statement that:

“On Friday a Russian band were sentenced to two years in jail for a political performance”! End of the day, in the eyes of a whistleblower, even desecration of the hollies is an act of “political performance”

A lesson of Political Leadership from the ’90s

 

 

Hollywood hasn’t always been, at least solely, the creator of super heroes with powers coming from extra terrestrial areas to a simple bite of a spider. We have picked this excerpt from Al Pacino’s Best movie, “Scent of a woman”, which beyond a lesson on life gives a profound lesson on the deep sociopolitical values, which are nowadays non applicable and almost extinct. “I have seen boys like these, younger than these, their arms torn out, their legs ripped off, but there is nothing like a site of an amputated spirit…”, “…makers of men, creators of leaders be careful what kind of leaders you are producing here…” are just some of the quotes we come across and which make us think that should we had reacted back then to the degradation of human spirit, should we had shielded those social values we are striving to resurrect today, none of this would have happened. Yet another proof of the economy being something beyond maths, it’s the tip of the iceberg collapsing when the societal base and its values deteriorate into the simplicity of amoralism and the degradation of the human spirit. It’s still not too late to change all that!

“They promised the shield would save us from nuclear annihilation…”-The edge of the world

 

How close are we to experiencing such a scenario, a global manifestation of a general conflict, which will mark the third confrontation of the unholy trilogy! Missile shield in Poland, Intervention in Syria, Iran’s nuclear program and a potential intervention to cripple it leading to a broader escalation of a pre-emptive attack in the Middle East, are just some of the scenarios, each one exclusively could bring about “Armageddon” on earth, let alone combined in a framework of crises spreading and  political immaturity, strong and prevalent elements of the era we live in! Do we have the power to change anything?