China’s flank secured, as it was intended!

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On April 15 China amazed almost everyone when a platoon crossed the border also known as Line of Actual Control (LAC) set after the Sino-Indian war of 1962 (although it was unofficially named as such in 1959) and penetrated deep inside Indian territory in the Ladakh region, thus escalating the tensions with India without any particular reason whatsoever, at least not as conspicuous as “The naked eye” could catch. Although China’s “restlessness” seemed to a great extent unnecessary, even dangerous, with ambiguous political objectives, if any, in truth China’s new leader knew exactly what he was doing and most importantly why he was doing it. Therefore the political objectives were clear, albeit only to the Chinese, who took the opportunity to test their Western-Influenced neighbor’s reactions in a “hypothetical situation” whereby China was perceived as an enemy by the West. That said, the Chinese took the matter a little further adding the notion of the “invader” in the already pitch black painted picture that the US and its allies are promoting. Truly, from a Chinese perspective, this Geostrategic “Chicken game” proved to be more fruitful than any verbal commitments China’s neighbor would be willing to present in the case-let us speculate-of an increased “activity” in the Pacific.

This gesture from China’s side, as said earlier, was perhaps necessary for the nation’s future maneuverings both diplomatically and/or militarily speaking. It was a necessity, bitter for sure, but a necessity nevertheless in order to measure what is broadly characterized as “The unstable factor”. India could play that role in the case of a conflict in the Pacific and China craved for reassurances, not verbal, but practical from the Indian side that they would not press at their flanks as a result of China’s preoccupation elsewhere. There are many questions and of course a lot of material for analysis in that case, but for us there’s only one question that dominates every other in this case. What if? What if India had reacted nervously? What if the Chinese platoon had been fired upon by India’s elite (in theory) special forces which were placed almost immediately opposite them. And what if things in general had escalated, something which is actually expected to occur under the globe’s current re-distribution of Geopolitical prerogatives? We should not forget that a couple of months ago the situation was tense in the Pacific due to North Korea, a situation which up to date has not returned to the pre-war rhetoric period of DPRK’s new leader Kim Jong Un. The industrialized zone which once posed as the sole unity between the North and the South has been closed after North Korea’s-still up to date-unexplained stance. Thus every tie between the two countries remains severed. The DPRK has already proclaimed war, there are no hotlines available for communication, even the 1953 armistice has been scrapped by the Norths, a stance which stands up to date. Thus, under those aforementioned circumstances a new Sino-Indian war was the least “desirable” scenario for both India and China, yet China amidst an inflamed, rather prolonged, period of hostility suddenly decides to cross the Ladakh and step into India’s territory, a fact of course which China has yet to admit, nevertheless if it was up to the Chinese to admit what belongs and what does not belong to them, then even the Pacific Ocean would be named after China (Chinese Ocean).

The Chinese forces remained in the region for three weeks as the two sides were “negotiating”, but in the backdrop of a generalized revisionism sweeping across the globe, someone has to ask this question: “What’s there to negotiate?” Yet the Indians were caught off guard showing their reluctance to go to war with China even when the Chinese forces established a supply route, an indication that they were there to stay. A “line” though is a “line” drawn on a map and as it was shown, end of the day no reason for India to go to war because of 15 km suddenly belonging to China. There was nothing there anyway except of snow and perhaps a “Yeti” or two, nevertheless China’s stance showed the West some interesting things regarding its mentality, elements which have to be studied and taken into consideration for the very near future

a) The Chinese crosses into India amidst growing tensions in the Pacific, sending the message that no matter how far “you think you have gone” we can go further.

b) It exhibited the obvious once again, which is its desire to expand towards every direction, North, West, East, South, you name it!

c) China crossed swords with a country, which is also in possession of nuclear weapons. As a matter of fact we could take the argument one step further and proclaim India as THE only country (after US and Russia) which is culturally mature enough in order to possess nuclear weapons and not threaten the world with a nuclear holocaust at the same time, unlike China and Pakistan for example.

d) The second message which China sent is its determination to fight a war (even a nuclear war) of two fronts if need be! Things would be much different had India responded with an artillery barrage killing every Chinese soldier who stepped foot on its territory, something that even China does not want, but it will if it has to in the future.

e) The above conclusion is China’s greatest strength and weakness at the same time as well as its modus operandi as a state which has acquired the means to expand and is eager to use them if need be in order to do so! We dare speculate that this kind of behavior is a pre-Geoeconomic attribute of a country’s stance, compared only to that of Germany’s prior to the Second World War. The Germans after having exited the grave economic situation they found themselves dug in prior to Hitler’s ascendance, as they were acquiring the means to show the world what a robust economy along with strong arms and good tactics could achieve, they could hardly restrain themselves from overexhibiting the might of the new Reich. 

We have reasons to believe that China’s behavior is following a similar patent. Daring, audacious, sometimes insane and definitely unpredictable, end of the day, though, dangerous! That said, if we had to draw a conclusion from the “mini shake up” with India, that would be that China is now ready to go after its goals in the Pacific. As a matter of fact, the Chinese do nothing to hide it, especially after the visit of China’s PM to India, right after the turmoil and their pledge to work under “friendly terms” in order to avert such sort of territorial crises in the future, something that definitely seems odd and unexpected to the observer. China was happy to find out that India would be kept in a short leash anyway, whatever the circumstances. Its administration’s officials were also happy so much so that they could not restrain themselves. It has happened before…it can happen again!

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Syria, not a “Game Changer” anymore! Soon a “Game Over”!

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The Syrian crisis new page which was turned the minute the IAF (Israeli Air Force) decided to bomb Syria twice in a time interval of two days, is threatening to escalate into a full scale war between the East and the West. DefenseHorizon along with numerous other well established websites had highlighted this aspect of “the war within a war” scenario from the moment Israel entered into this “equation”.
Now, after Benyamin Netanyahu’s visit to Moscow and Tuesday’s arrival of a contingent of 1,800 Marines and V-22 Ospreys at the port of Eilat in Israel, probably bound to Jordan as part of the broader force of the 22,000 men on stand by, a Western intervention lies far from the “red lines drawn” as a new perspective opens up, that of a preemptive strike from Israel’s part against the shipments of S-300 PMU2 and the SSN Yakhont in Syria. Specifically, the meeting between the President of the Russian Federation and Israel not only did not go well, but according to DEBKA it deteriorated into a tit for tat game of verbal threats in which Netanyahu warned Putin that the IAF would bomb both the S-300 and the Yakhonts and Putin rejecting this threat as “implausible”. Yet nothing is “implausible” given a)the severity of the situation, b) the involvement of Israel into a war, which is not of its own and c) US’s reluctance in the context of the strategy of “Confront and Conceal” to actively engage into a direct military intervention into Syria.

To break things up even more, DEBKA sources report that the Russians deliberately leaked information that the shipments of the S-300 missiles were already dispatched to Syria, thus annulling Netanyahu’s forthcoming plead towards Russia not to dispatch those missiles. The Russians, through Lavrov, used the best card they had on the table by stating that the S-300 is an Air to Air missile, thus its sail to Syria poses neither a threat to Israel nor any involvement whatsoever to the ongoing Syrian civil war as the only planes flying around is Assad’s. By consequence, what Sergei Viktorovick (Lavrov) did not have to add is the fact that both the S-300 and the Yakhong SS-N missiles would pose a threat only if a) there was a plan for a no fly zone or b) Israel decided to “test its luck” once again and bomb Syria’s territorial space. Objectively, this is an argument very difficult to confront as both cases stated above would lie outside international rules (there will never be a UN resolution for a No Fly Zone as long as China and Russia keep vetoing it) and thus in that case there would be only one rule: There are no rules.

President Putin broadened the defense “perimeter” of the A/A systems to include the Bajr Iranian forces, which as we have already stated, are trained to fight asymmetrical wars in urban environments. For all we know, given this data, and considering how bad this very important meeting went, there could be an outbreak of war between Syria and Israel anytime between the next hour to the next day or next week. To make matters worse, there are reports that elements of the Russian fleet, probably the ones that will constitute the Mediterranean fleet in the future, have passed the Suez Canal after taking two days to cross the Red Sea. Although those warships (Admiral Panteleyev destroyer, amphibious warfare ships Peresvet and Admiral Nevelskoi, the tanker Pechenga and the salvage/rescue tug Fotiy Krelov) left Vladivostok on March 19 and are bound to Limassol, sources like DEBKA place them in the future “hotzone” which apparently is going to be further inflamed by a potential preemptive Israeli strike.

On Thursday, the “Martyrs of the Abdel Qader al-Husseini Brigades” shelled Israeli territory reportedly marking Israel’s Independence Day (1948). The martyrs, though, on one hand are allegedly affiliated to the Assad regime, which has given them the green light to go ahead with a war of attrition from the Golan Heights as a response to Israel’s continuous bombing of Syria, on the other they claimed that “they are not celebrating” but instead “avenging the blood of their martyrs”, which-if true-lies definitely within the context of the war of attrition Assad has ordered. 

That said, the question now, which is being posed, is whether Netanyahu will give the Green light to go ahead with the bombing of the Russian shipment, something which could undoubtedly cause WWIII and compell the US to intervene whether it wants to or not. Perhaps this might be the reason why there has been an increase in troops numbers from the US bound to Jordan. Given the fact, though, that Netanyahu does not frequently say No to Obama and at this time Washington’s administration is amidst a chaos, from the scandals which have re-surfaced to devour it (AP scandal, Benghazi etc.), something like that would sound rather “improbable”. But then again, Israel’s behavior lately shows no signs of a standard motif towards handling crises, meaning that all of a sudden Netanyahu could go ahead and bomb the missiles upon their assembly, thereby causing the fury of Russia and turning the Middle East into a limbo.

The dangers are grave and they are there, probably enhanced by the Israel factor, which should have never entered “The Syrian Game”. The only thing that Netanyahu managed to do is to make Moscow even more rigid on the Syrian issue. If to all these we add the recent Spy Scandal which broke out in Moscow and “chilled” even further the US-Russian relations, then we can hardly claim that Putin is willing to play along, as decided. As a matter of fact, we don’t even know what was decided before we go into depth in order to analyze which part is going to be applied from Moscow’s side and which one is not.

For all we know, from the moment Israel decides to bomb the S-300 or even Syria again, Moscow will react, not of course through its 5-6 warships but through more serious means, not necessarily proxy but direct as well.

Russia’s Mediterannean fleet: Is that a “big deal” after all?

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Following the explosions which occurred in the Turkish-Syrian borders along with the recent news coming from the Syrian front, we have “stumbled across” reports, opinions and in general elements that do not necessarily reflect the truth or at least the magnitude of the projected truth. Today, Sunday May 12, the Russian admiral Victor Chirkov announced that the process is underway for creating a permanent staff to run Russian fleet operations in the Mediterranean Sea. In other words the Mediterranean fleet, which is a fragment of the Soviet Union’s 5th Mediterranean Squadron which was disbanded in 1992, is almost ready.

So far so good, but the number of ships are estimated to be 5-6 plus, as DEBKA reports, nuclear submarines able to launch nuclear ballistic missiles. This is “The threat”, i.e 5-6 warships and possibly a submarine (nuclear OK). Now, based on those reports DEBKA analyzes: “The new permanent deployment is the next Russian step for safeguarding Bashar Assad’s regime in Damascus and deterring military attacks on his Hizballah allies and Iranian interests in their three-way bloc…”. Can this be done with 5-6 warships and is Russia ever going to use its nuclear deterrent…for Syria? We think that the above statement is slightly exaggerated. It is true that Moscow is re-surfacing in the Mediterranean region, a region the importance of which has been upgraded due to Greece’s, Cyprus’s and Israel’s newly discovered natural resources, but the symbolic presence-for now-of a flotilla comprising 6 ships has nothing to do with supporting Assad or saving Iran from a possible bombing campaign or even more absurdly aid Hezbollah. 

This is not the end of it, though. The distinguished DEBKA continues: “Given all these circumstances, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s chances are virtually nil of getting anywhere in his trip to the Black Sea resort of Sochi to persuade President Vladimir Putin to hold back advanced S-300 anti-air missiles from Syria”. 

Even if that is true-which is not-where does that conclusion stem from? Putin threatened to sell S-300 A/A missiles because Israel interfered in the Syrian crisis, not once or twice, but three times so far. Putin possibly wants to “shake off” Netanyahu a little bit and corner him by convincing him to stay put and let the diplomats work towards a political solution of this crisis. Aside, though, from DEBKA, which as mentioned is a distinguished website and most of the times its analyses are accurate and concrete, several other “experts” feel free to express their opinion anyway they want to. In Francois Picard’s debate today: “The world this week”, which is also serious and a source of esteemed guests expressing logical conclusions after having engaged in constructive debates, some “shots” were fired, out of the blue, in terms of this matter. One of the guests (Anne Penketh, Freelance journalist) stated: “I watched the press conference in Moscow and Kerry looked weak! He did look weak, because I do not know why he went out of his way to full over backwards to be nice with Vladimir Putin”.

First of all, people need to digest that Vladimir Putin is a legitimate leader, who was elected by the Russian people following a fully democratic process! Second, it happens that Russia has a naval base, or better stated THE ONLY NAVAL BASE in Syria and is in direct contact with the Assad regime in terms of support, both logistical and military including advisers on the ground.

The statement sounded so absurd that Francois Picard himself intervened and said “which is what David Cameron did when he visited Sochi”. Another guest (Christopher Dickey, Paris Bureau Chief, Newsweek Magazine and Columnist, The Daily Beast) asked rhetorically “what are they {Americans} gonna do? What’s their grand plan?”, explaining further that a military intervention from the US’s side would be counter-productive and would require more than just a few planes bombing elements of the Syrian army. They would also need advisers on the ground and nobody is in fact contemplating such kind of a solution at the moment except of “extreme Republicans” such as John McCain.

And then it was Craig Copetas’s turn to “fire away” after Francois Picard asked him whether Russians are hedging their bet or just saying one thing and doing another. “The Russians are actually making money…they have always done that as a forefront prior to any geopolitical decision, they always wanted to secure sale of future weapons!” and further commenting on Ms Penketh’s rather offensive comment he said more or less that while the Americans have the “hearts and mind” issue as a compass to make deals, Russians take this as a weakness and that’s the way they see it.

Well, with the exception of the impeccable analysis of Christopher Dickey, who grasped the idea of why this upcoming political solution is so important, the other two made comments, which were absolutely groundless and seemed more like speculation and talking over a country and a political system which they neither know nor understand. Mr Copetas’s comments may have been valid 30 years ago when the USSR was alive and a different political system ran through the country, but the way we see it, this is the Russian Federation and Sergei Lavrov travels from a diplomatic meeting to another in order to resolve the Syrian crisis, instead of “selling weapons”, that’s ROSOBORONEXPORT’S job by the way, not Lavrov’s.

Finally Anne Penketh’s comments failed to honor both her name and the job title she bears as a Freelance Journalist. It goes without saying that once one finds himself as a guest to such a prestigious debate, the individual has to be reasonable so as to explain to the people who are watching and are not as familiar with the subject as he/she is, what is actually at hand and how the situation is translated into real life terms. As it seems, though, nothing should be taken for granted given the circumstances.

We have explained before that we as well are no less confused than our colleagues when it comes to the Middle East! What is important, though, is to analyze the facts as they are reflected or will be reflected in this particular geographic area. This is the definition of a Geopolitical analysis i.e sterile of any emotions or opinions as opposed to a Geostrategic analysis in which various sides can debate over the ideas they are contemplating, provided of course that their opinions are reasonable and don’t spread panic and further haze to the already confused reader-viewer. Thus, Mr Copetas cannot just state that Russia is interested solely in arms sales, because if it was interested in that it would have sold those S-300 to Iran instead of cancelling off the deal. Ms Penketh on the other hand should learn to break free from stereotypes, which present Vladimir Putin as Ivan the Terrible to the West and Russia as a country which is stripped of Democracy. This is not an opinion, this is propaganda and that’s what the Nazis used to do in order to pass on their ideas. Of course John Kerry did the right thing by assembling many states, Russia included, so that a political solution may be achieved in the not so distant future. Moreover, he did not seem “Weak” nor was he perceived as such by his Russian colleagues, who by the way are not a bunch of an uncivilized barbarian warlords eager to spot a weakness on their interlocutor.

Last but not least, DEBKA! You cannot enter World War III with 6 ships and one or two submarines even if they are nuclear. If the Russians wanted to confront NATO in the region, wouldn’t they at least “bother” to bring in their only aircraft carrier? There is a proxy war going on, no doubt about that and there have been instances when the Spetsnaz were there fighting side by side with the Iranians on Assad’s side, but then again there have also been reports regarding Western commandos fighting alongside the rebels, not to mention of course all those times when “The Legion” was involved.

It remains to be seen, whether there will be a political solution on the Syrian crisis in a post-Assad era, however one thing is for sure! Russia and Israel have developed strong ties and the S-300 issue is just a leverage. No Hezbollah member is going to use them in order to shoot down Israeli jets! As for the Mediterranean flotilla, well we strongly think that its assemble is more relevant to the last year’s 9/11 incident in Benghazi when terrorist literally lynched the late ambassador Stephens. After all, the Americans have dispatched a contingent to check things on Libya as well, but with such a volatile situation in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, a nation’s citizens have to be protected and 5-6 ships are “just fine” for evacuation purposes. 

The Middle-Eastern limbo through our scope

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The recent Israeli strikes against targets on Syrian territory including both Hezbollah and units of the Republican Guard of President Bashar al-Assad poses itself as-if we want to use the terminology of Washington officials-a “Game Changer”! It’s not the Sarin gas or the other weaponized chemicals that the regime allegedly has, which troubles the analysts. It’s Israel’s behavior, which literally a) does not make any sense, b) underscores the spillover effects of the crisis to a much wider zone, c) is against any traditional Israeli doctrine which dictates not to get involved in messes such as civil wars or overthrow heads of enemy states. That said, one may grasp the fundamental reasons why every political analyst is bewildered by Israel’s sudden, unprovoked, unjustifiable and unanticipated series of strikes.

It is already known that Shiite elements-players are already involved in Syria along with terrorists or terrorist affiliated groups which fight alongside the Free Syrian Army (Assad’s opposition). Little is known, though, about the modus operandi of the later groups, which seems to have been gathered from broader geographic regions such as Kosovo, Libya, Chechnya even Somalia. The “contribution” of those groups is said to facilitate the resistance, but that’s not always the case, as there are many factions inside this heterogeneous mixture, which often clash with each other, thus creating something like a civil war within the civil war. The introduction of Hezbollah and the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Basij, who have been trained to fight in urban environments constitutes the reason behind what has given the Israelis the pretext to intervene in something that is meant to pose as a greater blunder than the First Invasion in Lebanon. In January, we saw a series of strikes against convoys carrying ballistic parts allegedly for Hezbollah and against a Syrian Military-Scientific facility, which was meant to be weaponizing chemicals. The later has been re-targeted during the most recent raid.

The case that is being formed, though, is that while Israel is throwing its pre-emptive cards on the tables, its real purpose is to introduce itself as a game changer in favor of the resistance which has seen its forces beaten by Assad and his allies. While Tel-Aviv sticks to the usual rhetoric that weapons such as A/A (Scud-D, Fateh 110 etc.) or WMDs will not be allowed to fall on Hebollah’s hands, yet what was bombed was not Hezbollah, but rather the elite forces of Assad stationed on Mount Qassioun, specifically the 4th division, which spearheads Assad’s defenses and is commanded by his brother Maher Assad. According to Israeli sources the dead rose up to 40, but according to some Arabic Media, they were 300 or more. Not that it matters, meaning that even if 10 Republican Guard troops were killed by an Israeli air raid, this would be a good enough reason for Syria and Iran to move on to a similar attrition warfare carried out in the post 1967 six day war. 

The information is flowing in massive quantities and the scenarios vary. Nevertheless there is a point that we have all missed so far. The fact that Iran chose the battleground of an upcoming military confrontation, and that battleground is not in Lebanon as many of us had thought, it is in Syria and it can stretch from the Golan Heights to the Turkish-Syrian frontiers. The fact that Israel has been debating for months (if not years) a strike against the Iranian nuclear facilities has triggered a militarily sophisticated response by Iran, which is luring Israel into Syria just like Marshal Zhukov lured the Wehrmacht into the Kursk enclave in 1943. Iran has moved a lot since it was mining the Gulf in the ’80s targeting American ships and cutting off free shipping passages and that is not all.

Netanyahu is following Obama’s orders BLINDLY not stopping for one moment to think of the ramifications of the military pathway he chose to walk. This is the third time that he actually does something “wrong” after being pushed by Obama. The first time was during the recent Gaza air strikes when the reserves were ready to move in and Obama kept stalling him until it was too late for an invasion. The second time was when he was pushed to call the Turkish Prime Minister, from the airport when Obama was leaving Israel, and apologize after three years and amidst an anti-Semitic hysteria caused by the ruling party in Turkey. It was allegedly important because Obama had prepped many fronts which were meant to invade in Syria and without an Israeli-Turkish cooperation this would have been rendered impossible. But then, it was proven that “Washington’s red line was a big con” quite similar to the unforgiven pretexts regarding mythical WMDs that the Saddam regime presumably possessed. When the UN found out that the Sarin gas was used by the rebels, the situation stalled further, not to mention that essentially Washington is backing up terrorists who use WMDs like Sarin (even in very small doses just to set Assad up), nevertheless there are no guarantees that since they have laid their hands on Sarin they will not try to orchestrate a terrorist strike in one of the US’s major cities! So, in addition to an international outlaw, the Obama administration has “Treason” written all over the White House. And as if those criminal actions were not enough, the administration encouraged Netanyahu to step up and intervene in a civil war, where even the rebels hardly know their “comrades in arms”.

As the crisis is likely going to develop in a tit for tat status, the Israelis might be tempted even to enter Syria, but that would be the gravest mistake since the blunders of 1973. No matter how many countries of the Arab League or even NATO hit Syria, once they deploy boots on the ground, they will have to stand against the Revolutionary Guard units trained in Urban Warfare and for once more they will have to cope with the asymmetry posed by the opponent. What will it be like then? Mogadishu? Vietnam? Afghanistan? Pre-Petraeus Iraq? And even if they win the conflict, who on earth is going to stop the protracted insurgency after the fall of Assad?

In the meantime Russia is playing its own game. DEBKA reports that it has “teamed up” with Hezbollah. Russia does not have the habit of “teaming up” with terrorist organizations, but what is doing instead is acquiring diplomatic leverage and so far it has the major players fighting on the side of the regime under its wing. That is why President Putin phoned Netanyahu while he was in China and again as DEBKA reports “gave him a dressing down”, why? Because he can! And because Netanyahu must understand that the more he gets involved in the crisis the more perplexed the situation is going to develop. And when he finally realizes that Obama does not want to save Israel, then he is going to play by Moscow’s rules, and that is something we have mentioned before in one of our extensive analysis.

America is under attack: Our worst fears

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The Boston Marathon strike on Sunday April 15th is still troubling both the investigators and the experts on counter-terrorism issues adding more confusion and disarray to a country, which has not yet seen the end of what appears to be a chain reaction of random events, apparently not connected to each other, still though suspicious enough in terms of the timing.

But let’s take things from the beginning. On Sunday two bombs went off at the finishing lane of the Boston marathon, one of the biggest events in the world. The bombs or rather those Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) contained dispersion media such as nails and ballbearings inside pressure cookers. From the orchestration of the strike it is rather safe to deduct that the perpetrators wanted many victims, while the selection of this particular event (the Marathon) depicts that they also wanted many people watching. So far so “good”, in terms of understanding that this particular pattern is a form of the so called “New terror doctrine”, whereby terrorists want many casualties and many spectators at the same time, in contrast to older forms of terrorism (IRA, PLO hijackings, Red Brigades etc.). This is as far as it goes, though, in terms of everyone’s understanding of the attack. The purpose of a terrorist strike, any terrorist strike, is first and foremost political. That means that the perpetrators act out of ideology, disregarding the punishment that they are going to receive. In fact, they look forward to receiving this sort of punishment, which might be either in the form of losing their own lives (suicide bombers) or spend the rest of their years in a facility such as Guantanamo. That is the reason why they come forth and claim responsibility almost immediately after their “accomplishment”-according to them. The Global Salafists for example, what was known as Al-Qaeda, were proud to couple their act with an appropriate message to those who according to them are considered responsible for their plights. This has been exhibited numerous times from the strikes of 9/11, London 7/7, The Beslan attack in Russia in 2004 to more recent ones like the Benghazi attack, which cost the life to the ill-fated late Ambassador Stephens.

And since not all forms of terrorism are religious this pattern of political motivation has been exhibited both by Far right nationalists, Anders Breivik for example (he wrote a whole manifesto before he committed the hideous murders), who was actually proud of his ideology and was pursuing to spread his political message which was no other than his resentment for illegal immigrants, which had been flowing to Norway under the blessings of the ruling party. In the case of far-lefts like the Red Army Faction in Germany or the Red Brigades in Italy or even the 17th November organization in Greece, they all had a political message and most of the times their targets were specific people associated with the “degradation of modern capitalism”. When they put bombs, most of the times they would call the media announcing that a bomb was placed somewhere, the police then would go and diffuse it and a political manifesto would follow. In terms of ethnic terrorism, again Hezbollah, PKK, IRA, they all had their political message addressed to the states, which according to them were considered as occupiers, not to mention that those ethnic groups did not and do not have broader targets like the Global Salafi Jihad Network (Al-Qaeda) for example which can target anything from Saudi Arabia to the United States, as they wish to establish a panislamic caliphate. Thus, the aforementioned ethnic groups are confined only within their borders.

So, what do we have so far. Which group’s Modus Operandi fits in best in the Boston strike? Were they far right domestic activists like Eric Rudolph for example? Remember he had called the police before the bomb went off. The nearest “match” is the Oklahoma City Bombing, but then again it cannot even remotely be compared. The job was sloppy and was not difficult to apprehend the subject, in an age without cameras on every corner or drones buzzing above the sky. Most importantly, the bombing was not followed by poisonous letters along with independent events such as “mysterious packages” or “accidents” in US’s infrastructure spreading poisonous gas, like the one occurred today in Texas when a Fertilizer Plant blew up.

Terrorism poses firstly as a political act. Terrorists without manifestos, without any sort of political orientation to justify their hideous events, are just murderers in their eyes first and foremost and in the eyes of the people. Not that they pose as something different in general, however what they pursue is to combine fear with a political message. In this case, what is the political message? Letters of ricin sent to congressmen and to President Obama, as if ever those people were going to read any letters before passing from the National Security’s labs first. Our point of view, which we do not expect to be taken for granted and poses actually more as a fear from deep within, is that first all of the incidents are connected and second the perpetrators are NOT TERRORISTS despite their best efforts to imitate terrorist methods.

At this point we just wish to wonder, nothing more! Last week we were expecting a nuclear standoff in the Pacific. John Kerry visited the Chinese, trying to play Kissinger, urging them to cut off the financing from the DPRK, freeze their assets or whatever. The Chinese played everybody by stating that: “We seek to denuclearize the Korea Peninsula and that is a common goal with the Americans” and on Monday, just one day after the Boston bombing, their ships were violating the Senkakus all over again and the DPRK swore to retaliate without any warning, because the South Koreans demonstrated against North Korea’s regime and they burned images of the Kim “Dynasty”. We do not wish to connect the events, but let’s wonder whether those acts of aggression during times like these are “ethical”. The Chinese definitely gave the impression that they are willing to capitalize on US’s grief and pursue their Geostrategic goals in the Asian Pacific. Does that sound moral, noble or in any way right? Russia has many differences with the US, yet Putin immediately offered his aid to the ongoing investigations, did the Chinese do something similar? No! They were too busy provoking the Japanese and instructing their allies to provoke in turn the South Koreans.

One last element, which troubles us even more is the recent “Chinese honeytrap”, who managed to get a hold on a US military official. Let’s have a look on an excerpt from the Huffington Post:

“A 59-year-old former Army officer working as a defense contractor in Hawaii made his first court appearance Monday on charges of communicating classified information to a 27-year-old Chinese student he had been romancing, federal authorities said.Bishop, who has held a top secret security clearance since July 2002, met the China resident, visiting the United States on a student visa, at a conference in Hawaii involving international military defense issues, according to the Justice Department.

An FBI agent wrote in an affidavit that the unnamed student “may have been at the conference in order to target individuals such as Bishop who work with and have access to U.S. classified information.” Bishop provided the woman with information relating to nuclear weapons, including intelligence on how the U.S. detects low- and medium-range ballistic missiles and information on early-warning radar systems, according to the government. He faces a maximum potential sentence of 20 years in prison if convicted.”

Would it be possible that Bishop provided some “soft targets” in the US as well to his Chinese “loved one”? It’s just a question and it needs to be answered. Because what it seems to be happening starting from Sunday to today Thursday, when the Texas plant exploded out of the blue, looks a lot like “someone” putting his best efforts to destabilize the US and spread fear from the West to East coast. In espionage, the agents are instructed to cause industrial sabotage along with psychological operations in order to distract the enemy’s attention prior to a conflict or an upcoming conflict, in plain terms, keeping the enemy pinned down in its own domestic problems.

We are not suggesting anything, but if someone asked us to draw the bow and speak the truth with regard to our deepest fears, yes that would be one of them. A fear, most of the times is a state of mind, not necessarily reflecting an existing or potential threat, yet until we are assured by viewing further evidence derived from the ongoing investigations, our fears will remain where they are for now. The writer has recently graduated from St Andrews University and is a holder of a degree in Counter-Terrorism. In this case, the Modus Operandi is a “cocktail one” from various organizations and the political motive is nowhere to be found. So, technically, albeit there is terror everywhere, there are no signs of the political clues which will back an allegation of a terrorist attack! No cause, hence no causative. That really doesn’t help a lot in terms of the fears we were talking about!

Alexandros Boufesis

Director of Focus Dynamics Research Center

Owner of http://www.defensehorizon.com

The Pentagon’s New Budget and “The Avengers”

Avengers2

In the realm of phantasy in a context of fairy tales such as Alice in Wonderland, The Narnia Chronicles and so on, the new Pentagon’s budget and the way, which the money is going to be distributed throughout the Country’s armed forces, would be ideal. Only in that case, though, in a “Narnia” world, because this one needs other “tools”, not to mention that should the occasion arises, God forbid, and the US decides to fight against huge continental forces (China most likely, judging from the escalating tensions in the Korean peninsula), we can state with the utmost confidence, that the US is going to lose and in order to give the full specter of the defeat, we state that the US will love very very badly!

First of all, the budget itself ($526.6 bn dollars plus the Afghanistan campaign, roughly another 88 bn dollars) is more than enough for the US to proceed into the necessary changes in its doctrine and present a truly invincible military machine. The Russians spend $780 bn in a course of 10 years and they regard it as the most expensive so far, so one can imagine how the numbers are translated into materiel and potential.

Still, though, the US is following the same self-destructive military doctrine, which replaced the so called “Powell Doctrine”, which as we all know granted them a victorious campaign in 1991, when the first Iraqi war broke out. The administrations, which followed, though, did everything they could to alter this doctrine, back then we could say that their action was justified in light of the demise of the Soviet Union, but now even if we disregard Russia as a potential “future rival”, sometime sooner rather than later, the US will have to deal with China. And the Chinese recently did some “things” during April’s military exercises, which are considered astonishing by those who still understand a couple of things about “Mechanized Warfare”. They trained on unit maneuvering amidst a snowstorm, a fact which we find very “spooky”, not to mention that the phrase which comes into our minds is “Remind me not to f*** with you”!

When fighting a Continental force you need-let us think it’s not so hard to guess though-LAND UNITS! And in terms of the air-force, you should stick to the planes which will provide you both air superiority and ground assistance. The Americans won’t be fighting against the Taliban (who even they were proven to be undefeated), they will be fighting against waves of millions of soldiers ready-literally-to waste their lives, because for their country they are just numbers. We have said that so many times, even we become bored to repeat it on every occasion, yet we still hope that things will change!

So what if you have the “invisible plane”, the most expensive research program in Human History, as it is characterized by the experts (we simply characterize it as a legal case, which has to be taken to Justice one day), the F-35, which has cost 1 trillion dollars and still is not operational. And we really pray to God that it will not become operational, because innocent lives will perish, as Lockheed does not guarantee that it will not be struck by a lightning when flying within 25 nautical miles from a storm, the engineers have removed valuable fuzes and now the plane has 25% more chance of catching fire when hit oh and the “C” version has to be redesigned because the hook doesn’t work and we are talking about a “Stealth plane” (at least theoretically). In 1999 when the “Stealth dream” was shuttered to pieces, once “The Nighthawk” was shot down, the Serbs went on air to joke about it by stating “Sorry we didn’t know it was invisible”. That was about 14 years ago, how long will it take for the mentality to change, since we are just one click away from the biggest Confrontation the Human History will have seen.

The army’s budget is down by 2.3 bn so is the navy’s by 3.1 bn, yet the air force gets “the luxury” of increasing its budget by 4.7 bn dollars. UNBELIEVABLE! The F-35 project, instead of shutting down, will absorb another $8.4 billion for development and acquisition, to buy the Air Force 19 new F-35s, the Marines six and the Navy four. Let’s make it clear! Not only Lockheed gets more money and evades subpoenaed for embezzlement (that’s how it’s called in the Countries which are considered “corrupt” by the US), but it ends up getting another $8.4bn for “Development and Acquisition”, that is why we have already characterized it a criminal case. Specifically according to law this makes the current government complicit to “premeditated murder”, because it already knows that this “fairytale has gone really bad”, yet it endorses its mass production and sends men to “fry” in those “flying coffins”. Unless we are mistaken, premeditated murder on a governmental level constitutes a conspiracy against the people of the United States and calls for constitutional interference in order for the lives of American pilots to be protected! Is anyone listening? We will see!


Thankfully it’s not all dark and gloomy, there are some projects, which are considered essential and they are worth the money, the trouble and the risk. Those are the new LCS ships, SSN-774 Virginia-Class Submarine (money invested in submarines is rarely considered as wasted), and the Warfighter Information Network, a tactical tool which is placed in the context of command and control and makes the infantry lives easier-of course it also reduces the fatalities. The amphibious combat vehicle is a good idea as well, as the army needs its mechanized assets more than ever, however it would be more preferable to boost up the replacement of M1A1 Abrams tanks with M1A2 and fund the research for the M1A3. The re-introduction of XM2001 Crusader artillery project which was cancelled out by Donald Rumsfeld would also give fruits in future conflicts. Although not as cheap and good, as experts suggest, as the German PzH-2000, the Germans were willing to cooperate in a joint project to make it better. But, according to the doctrine and mentality, “Let it be, this is ancient stuff, artillery…pffff what do we pay planes for? Aren’t they supposed to do the job?”. 

That said, and based on this mentality, the US is now ready to start its first drill in the Persian Gulf by using…laser weapons. Yes, this is news and as a matter of fact, they justify it by saying that on the one hand it’s very cheap, on the other it will have the same revolutionary effect in combat as gunpowder once introduced. In Medicine it did, so unless they are willing to cure every blind man in Iran, the usage of such weapons only demonstrate the exact opposite than the US wants to promote in the context of deterrence. They are pursuing “cheap solutions” in combat while funneling 2/3 of what Russia is giving in 10 years, each year to the Pentagon for materiel, whose usage and value in the battlefield are both highly ambivalent.

US has all the projects it needs laid down in terms of the full specter of the armed forces. The Powell Doctrine is more expensive indeed, but welcome to the “realm of the obvious”, it is both expensive in materiel and human lives (the value of which cannot be estimated). Yet 600 bn dollars is more than enough to get prepared to hold the Pacific front and produce weapons that have already proven their value. Like the Super Hornets, The A-10s aka Thunderbolts (which are perfect tank killing machines especially once combined with Apache planes), the F-22 and the B-2 Spirits and most importantly the tank and artillery potential of Weapons like the M1A2-3 and The Crusader! There is still time for huge changes, which once applied are going to deter every continental force, be it China, Russia or Europe as a whole (for example) from challenging the US the way a “hermit kingdom” does so in today’s situation, which unfolds in the Korean Peninsula!

This mentality of “The Avengers”, winning whole battles single-handedly is a joke which has gone too far. Ironman will not help gaining air supremacy, Thor and the Hulk are not going to be deployed on the ground to counter the tanks and infantry and last but not least Scarlet Johannson is not going to play “The honey trap” in order to steal the enemy’s plans (although now that we think about it this is the most realistic part of the aforementioned scenario)!

Chinese Drills on the border with DPRK bring back memories from the ’50s

TankChina

China’s military and defense ministry has announced that it conducted live military drills and under very harsh weather conditions (amidst a snowstorm) on the border with North Korea.

The Communist Party’s newspaper has confirmed that drills (live fire maneuvers) were carried out in Shenyang, a region which is very close to the DPRK borders. The units that took place were mechanized and armor units, which were testing maneuvers under harsh weather conditions. Washington still has not taken the armored factor into consideration, as the Country’s top military brass considers them obsolete. Martin Dempsey has said, though, that a pre-emptive strike is on the table, meaning that there is going to be a gunfight and US will be holding the knife.

US officials have also confirmed that the troops were part of the 190th Mechanized Mechanized Infantry Brigade based in Benxi, Liaoning Province. The Brigade is considered to constitute the “spearhead” of any operation, should China chooses to get involved and cross the borders with the DPRK. At that point we need to elaborate on something, because there seems to be a “misunderstanding” in terms of China’s role in this “situation”. Fox News reported on April 05 that “North Korea’s aggression could strengthen US-China alliance”. According to Fox News

“North Korea’s latest outburst of nuclear and military threats has given the U.S. a rare opportunity to build bridges with China — a potential silver lining to the simmering crisis that could revitalize the Obama administration’s flagging policy pivot to Asia”.

We rarely comment on other publications, but this time and under those circumstances the phenomenon, whereby everyone states what comes in his/her mind, has gone too far and has become very dangerous for US’s Foreign Policy. Not even in a parallel universe can a) China turn against North Korea, its only ally in the region, let alone b) build bridges with the US, while the second follows a containment policy towards the first in the Pacific Region. Our colleagues unfortunately fail to understand that China was the one who started all this. As a matter of fact it pursued tensions in the Senkaku region first, but the Japanese were too “cold-blooded” to respond to any Chinese provocation, so they got bored eventually, dropped the scheme and threw the ball in North Korea’s court. We have been stressing those issues for months, but…who are we? Certainly not the “Golden Boys” of the White House who get to be advisers and end up in conversations with military officials of other countries, who feel so “comfortable” as to blow the smoke of their Dunhill cigarettes on their faces. We stop here as we have made our point and consider more inappropriate to further comment on the…inappropriate!

The clouds of war have grown denser and Washington is in need of skillful diplomats as much as skillful generals in order to see this crisis through. Under the current circumstances we regret to read news that criminalize the US in this theater of operations and justify Pyonyang’s actions of moving “Musudan type” missiles, which are capable of striking Okinawa, Guam and/or South Korea.

For the first time, US has taken a step back and cancelled the scheduled launch of the Minuteman III ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile), in a remarkable attempt to de-escalate or at least refrain from escalating any further the tensions. If the US “had planned it all along” as some ignorants, who unfortunately happen to be professors as well, claim, then it would certainly launch the Minuteman missile instead of postponing it, even though officials claimed that this occurred due to “technical reasons”. Second thing, if their country is threatened by a paranoid regime, which lets the people of the country starve to death, and its nuclear weapons, then we would be very interested in watching their reactions. Would they not bolster-at least-their ABM defenses? And if they did that and things got worse, because they were meant from the beginning to get worse, would it be logical to state that it’s their fault, because they militarized the region? Certainly “Uncle Albert” comes often in our mind, when he said that human stupidity is infinite.

The recent Chinese drills have shown that the US is not prepared to fight a Continental force, such as China, through technological means solely. The need for mechanized warfare has also been stressed by DefenseHorizon many times in the past, as bombing campaigns have proven to be useless, unless they are combined with formidable forces on the ground. This is known at least from 1999 when NATO unloaded almost its entire payload on Serbia and if Boris Yeltsin, then President of the Russian Federation, did not urge Milosevic to step down, he would probably still be there.

This is a good chance for the US to square things out with China, but unless they shift their doctrine from “the air” to “the ground” they face the imminent danger of being cut off once and forever from the Asia-Pac theater.

You sent the ships, but you forgot the “Heavy Cavalry” Gentlemen!

Sea-Based Missile Defense "Hit-to-Kill" Intercept Successful from U.S. Navy destroyer in the Pacific

It’s nice to know that we are taken into consideration and we our suggestions prove out to be valuable. As we had proposed in the article with the Raptors dispatched to South Korea, the US has sent a couple of ships bearing the AEGIS Ballistic Missile Defense System. That was a very wise move indeed, as we had suggested in our analysis:

The US may want some additional warships bearing the AEGIS system just in case the missiles “start raining”

There is however still the issue of mechanized infantry and “Heavy weapons” in general. For example some M1A2 tanks would come in handy in this situation, where so much infantry is being deployed, unfortunately not only by the DPRK.

China has been mobilizing units too, setting its readiness in the highest alert (1) and moving units along with military jets close to the North Korean border. Reportedly the process has been going on since Mid-March. As Russia Today reports:

“Chinese forces, including tanks and armored personnel carriers, have been spotted in the city of Ji’an and near the Yalu River, which splits China and North Korea. Other border regions were also reportedly being patrolled by planes.

China has also been conducting live-firing naval exercises in the Yellow Sea, scheduled to end on Monday. The move is widely viewed as open support for North Korea, which continues to show extreme opposition to the US-South Korean military drills that are to last until May.Chinese forces, including tanks and armored personnel carriers, have been spotted in the city of Ji’an and near the Yalu River, which splits China and North Korea. Other border regions were also reportedly being patrolled by planes.

China has also been conducting live-firing naval exercises in the Yellow Sea, scheduled to end on Monday. The move is widely viewed as open support for North Korea, which continues to show extreme opposition to the US-South Korean military drills that are to last until May”.

This constitutes the scenario we had been warning against over and over starting from January since Kim announced his “vision” for a Unified Korea! The situation had to be taken seriously then, now it’s not too late of course, but after the satellite launch and the nuclear test it became evident that the DPRK was pursuing this course of clash with the US. And of course, because the DPRK is China’s proxy in the region, China has been pursuing escalating tensions, both covertly-via the DPRK-and overtly via the Senkaku and the Spratly island disputes.

Of course if the “wise generals” from Washington had refrained from crying out loud that US is going to operate in the Asia Pacific in the future none of these would have happened! Those pursuits are being carried out discreetly and not through “pompous statements” regarding the relocation of US forces. With this philosophy why doesn’t the US just give out the coordinates of every military vessel it has sailing on the seven seas of the planet?

Be that as it may, the issue may be even more complicated since sooner or later there is going to be an active involvement of NATO forces in the Syrian crisis. And then, you’d probably expect to hear from us lines of “I told you soooooooos”, but that is not going to happen as we will be dug deeper in a situation close to what is predicted to be World War III. So unless someone comes out and gives an explanation why

a) The DPRK all of a sudden threatens the US

b) and then China beefs up its forces in the region

c) while NATO has unfinished business in the Middle East

we will keep on repeating our usual positions on the issue, which have nothing to do with any sort of “de-escalating” but rather further escalating.

Every day for the last couple of weeks, the US sends another military unit, allegedly in the context of the joint drills, first it was the B-52 then the B-2 then the F-22 Raptor. After that they said they would send a sea-based radar platform along with the USS John S. McCain. Actually most of the news-sites report that the X-Band Radar is already there, however Reuters reports that US officials denied having sent the radar, because they don’t know what to do with it yet. They have sent, though, another ship, the USS Decatur instead of the USS Fitzgerald initially intended to be the one which was going to be dispatched. 

Be that as it may, the AEGIS systems are designed to intercept enemy missiles and that is translated to Washington bolstering the Missile Defense Capability in the territory. We still believe that under those circumstances more Jets with bombing capabilities are needed, being multirole of course, so that the “Libyan scenario”, where the British Eurofighters were the only jets which had such capabilities (the other states deployed upgraded Eurofighters Tranche-2, but they proved out to be incapable of destroying ground targets).

Raptors over Korea: A Tactical Mistake

F22korea

US responds to DPRK’s military provocations by sending more state of the art planes, without actually realizing that through this application of deterrence, the Norths are enraged even more. The samurais had a saying: “One sword keeps another one sheathed” but either the Norths don’t get the notion of deterrence or we don’t know-at least not yet-how many swords are going to be drawn in this escalating drama.

The F-22s arrived on Sunday March 31st and they are there to stay. Previously there was a “probing of the enemy” carried out by the US by sending the older B-52s along with the tip of the spear in terms of their bombing capabilities, the B-2 spirit, which flew over the Korean peninsula in a roundtrip going back to the US after it was refueled in the air. As we discussed in a previous article in regard with the B-2s the move by the US was a typical probing tactic, in order to test the regime’s reactions, which became worse by declaring war on South Korea, cutting the last lines of communication and threatening to close down the common industrial area in which both the Norths and Souths work jointly.

Since the enemy was probed, the deployment of the F-22s constitutes a mistake. We’ve already mentioned that the Norths don’t seem to understand much about deterrence at this point or there’s something else going on, as for example being backed by China. Be that as it may, the F-22 has limited bombing capabilities and we don’t even know whether those types that were sent to South Korea formerly stationed in Japan at Kadena air base are the upgraded ones, which possess enhanced air to ground capabilities. In times like these, the US is going to miss the “Powell doctrine”, according to which, if it was applied, the US would have sent several tank and artillery battalions instead of an airplane, which can only provide air superiority. The Norths, one way or another, possess ancient Soviet technology, air force included, so what’s the point in sending an F-22 against-best case scenario-Mig 29s, is a waste of firepower. US could have easily sent “Super Hornets” to do the job or even F-15s, but that is not the only inappropriate choice in terms of tactical decisions.

The US may want some additional warships bearing the AEGIS system just in case the missiles “start raining”. It is evident that it is not their intent to escalate, but to deter, evidently though the North Koreans have not shown the same “mood” and they are willing to escalate at will. The DPRK has 1.2 million soldiers at its disposal and in terms of casualties the more they die the better, according to the regime. 1.2 million people, even if they use “slings” as weapons are a force which has to be reckoned with. That translates into more mechanized divisions needed from the US-allied side in order to cope with the flood which is going to start pouring from the North. At the moment the Americans are pursuing their deterrence objectives through the annual exercise codenamed “Foal-Eagle”, but we are afraid that the operational theater is going to deteriorate into a “foiled-eagle” situation full of negative surprises. We should not forget the Middle Eastern front as well, the Americans whether they want it or not are still engaged there.

Best thing to do at the moment is to cross fingers so nothing happens, the lack though of “heavy armored units” definitely leaves a whole in the US’s defensive approach when it comes to continental forces, be it North Korea or just like the ’50s China and North Korea operating jointly!

Chuck Hagel: “I admire Mustafa Kemal Ataturk”!

Smyrnaburning

How would a well-esteemed and high US official be regarded if he ever said: “You know what? I love Genghis Khan and we in the West do not understand his mighty contribution to today’s civilization”? The new Defense Minister, to whom we have the utmost respect because he took the DPRK’s threat seriously, is either misinformed about the historical personality he painted with such “vibrant” and “constructive” colors or there is something else going on. We do not mean to imply anything which undermines the constitution, but it is one thing to tolerate Turkey for the sake of Geopolitics and another to openly cheer for one of the greatest butchers history has ever known. Who knows, perhaps when he was young he could be in love with a woman from Turkey, maybe that could be one of the reasons why he is so positively inclined towards Turkey, but still it doesn’t justify the outburst of admiration towards a mass murderer! What would be his next action under those circumstances? Wear a T-shirt with a stamp: “I love Kemal!” while the Turkish troops will be invading Syria? That’s just too much for the United States of America.

Let’s reiterate Chuck Hagel’s words: “Well, I’m glad to know my standing is significant in Turkey. But – and I admire the Turks and the government, and Atatürk and I have over the years noted Atatürk in different speeches I’ve given, not just in Turkey, but the United States. He did something that was very significant that has had a very important sustaining legacy in the world. And sometimes we — we in the West don’t fully appreciate what Atatürk did”. If he is talking about the “opening” of Kemal to the West through his state reforms then he should narrow down his admiration and support on those reforms only, which, according to the US, seemingly, those were the reason why Turkey is today a NATO member. Even in that case, though, this assumption would be false, because the only reason, initially at least, Turkey entered NATO, was because its “inclination” towards the Soviet Union. And since we are talking about Kemal, he “loved” the Bolsheviks so much so that his “anti-Western” campaign became dependent on Lenin’s financing. We cite a text from Wikipedia:

“In his message to Vladimir Lenin, the Bolshevik leader and head of the RSFSR‘s government, dated 26 April 1920, Kemal promised to coordinate his military operations with the Bolsheviks’ “fight against imperialist governments” and requested 5 million lira in gold as well as armaments “as first aid” to his forces.[107] In 1920 alone, the Lenin government supplied the Kemalists with 6,000 rifles, over 5 million rifle cartridges, 17,600 projectiles as well as 200.6 kg of gold bullion; in the subsequent 2 years the amount of aid increased…”

But Kemal was nothing but a political “fox” apart from being a mass murderer. While wanting to establish a Soviet pan-Balkan domain, in the end he butchered the members of the Turkish communist party. And this is just a sample of his “mood swings”. After he defeated the Greek forces, whose commanders were stupid enough to overextend their lines from Constantinople to just a few miles West of Ankara, while Eleftherios Venizelos was being toppled by The King all over again, he sent a letter to the League of Nations stating that the Turkish population was so worked up that the Ankara Government would not be responsible for massacres. And those massacres did occur, Smyrna was burning and the Greek population was slaughtered to death. Those who managed to flee migrated to the Greek mainland, causing a huge humanitarian issue, which gave the ultimate blow to the Greek Economy. 

The murders, though, did not stop there. We feel compelled to refresh the memory of Mr Obama and his administration at this point, when they received this letter:

“We believe that acknowledgments of the Armenian Genocide are an important step toward ending the final stage of every genocide, denial, which continues to inflict suffering on the group that has been victimized – an inhuman assault on memory perpetrated by the Turkish government for more than 90 years.”

“The 94-year denial of the Armenian Genocide has emboldened perpetrators ever since.”

IAGS letter to President Barack Obama, 3.7.09″

Plus an excerpt of what was heard in Congress:

“Studies by genocide scholars prove that the single best predictor of future genocide is denial of a past genocide coupled with impunity for its perpetrators. Genocide Deniers are three times more likely to commit genocide again than other governments.”

Testimony to Congress by Dr. Gregory Stanton, President, IAGS, 4.23.08

The above concern the Armenian genocide, but before we go there let’s hear the brutal truth dripping from the lips of Mustafa Kemal himself, evidently taking pleasure when talking about his murderous accomplishments to a Swedish Journalist

The text below is corrected and reprinted from the Armenian Mirror-Spectator, March 16, 1985.

Kemal Promises More Hangings
of Political Antagonists in Turkey

” I shall not stop until every guilty person, no matter how high his rank, has been hung from the gallows as a grim warning to all incipient plotters against the security of the Turkish Republic. Since the very hour of its reincarnation in the rejuvenated body of the Republic, our nation has endured travails no other nation has ever experienced.
When we were fighting external enemies, or enemies whom we were certain were sympathetic with foreign intriguers, nearly all of the rank and file of our population were enthusiastically, even fanatically, united to deliver the nation from the multiple foreign yokes. But no sooner had the nation proved its worth to its foreign detractors than certain elements, bred in the old school of political intrigue, began to show their claws. We were face to face with a menace to the life of the republic from two elements.
One was the group who combined religious fanaticism and ignorance with political imbecility and who, in the past, under different Sultans had come to believe that the state was an organism to be exploited through debauchery, corruption and brazen bribery for personal ends. I put the ax in the dual root of this sinister and reprehensible theory of government by destroying the Khalif and the Sultan. I sent into exile the persons in whom this theory was personified. Large numbers, adherents of this school of politics, attempted to interpret any act as atheistic, and, under the aegis of religion, began to intrigue against the life of the republic.
Sixty Leaders Hang at Dawn In several instances in the past when, in Kurdistan and other interior regions of Anatolia, they showed a disposition to challenge the will of the republic, I crushed them with an iron hand, and for example, had over sixty of their leaders hanged at dawn”. 

Regarding the Armenian genocide: From the Gendercide watch (http://www.gendercide.org/case_armenia.html)

“Turkey’s defeat in World War I, and the consequent collapse of the Ottoman Empire, offered surviving Armenians an opportunity for national self-realization. In 1918, an independent Republic of Armenia was declared. U.S. President Woodrow Wilson was granted the right to draw up the boundaries of a new Armenian nation, formalized at the Treaty of Sèvres in 1920. However, the Turkish government, under nationalist leader Kemal Ataturk, rapidly renounced the Treaty. In collusion with the newly-created Soviet Union, the Turks invaded Armenia and reconquered six of the former western Ottoman provinces granted to Armenia under the Treaty, along with the Armenian provinces of Kars and Ardahan”. 

As for Kemal’s own opinion: “The Ataturk government effectively cancelled the court-martial process (Ataturk himself claiming that the Armenians killed were “victims of foreign intrigues” and guilty of abusing “the privileges granted them”)”.

“ATA BOY”! He’s the man, this Kemal guy, everyone would agree on that Mr Hager, isn’t that so? Perhaps if the Greeks had responded in the same way to the American administrations, as Kemal himself did, maybe “Chuck” would share his admiration between the Turks and the Greeks. But hey, if assassinating 3/4 of a population and be proud of it is not a reason for admiration then what is? We have a question, though, why are Stalin and Hitler off the list of the people Mr Hagel admires? They did good as well, better than the Turks! That remains to be answered by Mr Hagel of course.

It is noteworthy that while France and specifically ex President Nicola Sarkozy signed himself the draft resolution condemning the denial of Armenian genocide, in the US the Obama Administration was against the resolution when it was brought to congress for voting from the beginning. In France it was regarded as “unconstitutional” by the Supreme Court (even though the resolution had the President’s Signature), while in the US, senators are still fighting to pass it through with the “magic word”, which depicts the true nature of the crime (GENOCIDE), but nobody would want to “upset” the “civilized NATO allies”, the Turks. As a matter of fact, and according to Mr Hagel, not only are they not mass murderers but they ought to be “admired” for their “democratic accomplishments” and their “Great leader” Mustafa Kemal, without whom the Western societies of today would have had so much less to exhibit in cultural terms.

In cases like these we truly wonder who is in charge of the Western World. The US or Turkey?