The Middle-Eastern limbo through our scope

Syriabomb

The recent Israeli strikes against targets on Syrian territory including both Hezbollah and units of the Republican Guard of President Bashar al-Assad poses itself as-if we want to use the terminology of Washington officials-a “Game Changer”! It’s not the Sarin gas or the other weaponized chemicals that the regime allegedly has, which troubles the analysts. It’s Israel’s behavior, which literally a) does not make any sense, b) underscores the spillover effects of the crisis to a much wider zone, c) is against any traditional Israeli doctrine which dictates not to get involved in messes such as civil wars or overthrow heads of enemy states. That said, one may grasp the fundamental reasons why every political analyst is bewildered by Israel’s sudden, unprovoked, unjustifiable and unanticipated series of strikes.

It is already known that Shiite elements-players are already involved in Syria along with terrorists or terrorist affiliated groups which fight alongside the Free Syrian Army (Assad’s opposition). Little is known, though, about the modus operandi of the later groups, which seems to have been gathered from broader geographic regions such as Kosovo, Libya, Chechnya even Somalia. The “contribution” of those groups is said to facilitate the resistance, but that’s not always the case, as there are many factions inside this heterogeneous mixture, which often clash with each other, thus creating something like a civil war within the civil war. The introduction of Hezbollah and the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Basij, who have been trained to fight in urban environments constitutes the reason behind what has given the Israelis the pretext to intervene in something that is meant to pose as a greater blunder than the First Invasion in Lebanon. In January, we saw a series of strikes against convoys carrying ballistic parts allegedly for Hezbollah and against a Syrian Military-Scientific facility, which was meant to be weaponizing chemicals. The later has been re-targeted during the most recent raid.

The case that is being formed, though, is that while Israel is throwing its pre-emptive cards on the tables, its real purpose is to introduce itself as a game changer in favor of the resistance which has seen its forces beaten by Assad and his allies. While Tel-Aviv sticks to the usual rhetoric that weapons such as A/A (Scud-D, Fateh 110 etc.) or WMDs will not be allowed to fall on Hebollah’s hands, yet what was bombed was not Hezbollah, but rather the elite forces of Assad stationed on Mount Qassioun, specifically the 4th division, which spearheads Assad’s defenses and is commanded by his brother Maher Assad. According to Israeli sources the dead rose up to 40, but according to some Arabic Media, they were 300 or more. Not that it matters, meaning that even if 10 Republican Guard troops were killed by an Israeli air raid, this would be a good enough reason for Syria and Iran to move on to a similar attrition warfare carried out in the post 1967 six day war. 

The information is flowing in massive quantities and the scenarios vary. Nevertheless there is a point that we have all missed so far. The fact that Iran chose the battleground of an upcoming military confrontation, and that battleground is not in Lebanon as many of us had thought, it is in Syria and it can stretch from the Golan Heights to the Turkish-Syrian frontiers. The fact that Israel has been debating for months (if not years) a strike against the Iranian nuclear facilities has triggered a militarily sophisticated response by Iran, which is luring Israel into Syria just like Marshal Zhukov lured the Wehrmacht into the Kursk enclave in 1943. Iran has moved a lot since it was mining the Gulf in the ’80s targeting American ships and cutting off free shipping passages and that is not all.

Netanyahu is following Obama’s orders BLINDLY not stopping for one moment to think of the ramifications of the military pathway he chose to walk. This is the third time that he actually does something “wrong” after being pushed by Obama. The first time was during the recent Gaza air strikes when the reserves were ready to move in and Obama kept stalling him until it was too late for an invasion. The second time was when he was pushed to call the Turkish Prime Minister, from the airport when Obama was leaving Israel, and apologize after three years and amidst an anti-Semitic hysteria caused by the ruling party in Turkey. It was allegedly important because Obama had prepped many fronts which were meant to invade in Syria and without an Israeli-Turkish cooperation this would have been rendered impossible. But then, it was proven that “Washington’s red line was a big con” quite similar to the unforgiven pretexts regarding mythical WMDs that the Saddam regime presumably possessed. When the UN found out that the Sarin gas was used by the rebels, the situation stalled further, not to mention that essentially Washington is backing up terrorists who use WMDs like Sarin (even in very small doses just to set Assad up), nevertheless there are no guarantees that since they have laid their hands on Sarin they will not try to orchestrate a terrorist strike in one of the US’s major cities! So, in addition to an international outlaw, the Obama administration has “Treason” written all over the White House. And as if those criminal actions were not enough, the administration encouraged Netanyahu to step up and intervene in a civil war, where even the rebels hardly know their “comrades in arms”.

As the crisis is likely going to develop in a tit for tat status, the Israelis might be tempted even to enter Syria, but that would be the gravest mistake since the blunders of 1973. No matter how many countries of the Arab League or even NATO hit Syria, once they deploy boots on the ground, they will have to stand against the Revolutionary Guard units trained in Urban Warfare and for once more they will have to cope with the asymmetry posed by the opponent. What will it be like then? Mogadishu? Vietnam? Afghanistan? Pre-Petraeus Iraq? And even if they win the conflict, who on earth is going to stop the protracted insurgency after the fall of Assad?

In the meantime Russia is playing its own game. DEBKA reports that it has “teamed up” with Hezbollah. Russia does not have the habit of “teaming up” with terrorist organizations, but what is doing instead is acquiring diplomatic leverage and so far it has the major players fighting on the side of the regime under its wing. That is why President Putin phoned Netanyahu while he was in China and again as DEBKA reports “gave him a dressing down”, why? Because he can! And because Netanyahu must understand that the more he gets involved in the crisis the more perplexed the situation is going to develop. And when he finally realizes that Obama does not want to save Israel, then he is going to play by Moscow’s rules, and that is something we have mentioned before in one of our extensive analysis.

Chinese Drills on the border with DPRK bring back memories from the ’50s

TankChina

China’s military and defense ministry has announced that it conducted live military drills and under very harsh weather conditions (amidst a snowstorm) on the border with North Korea.

The Communist Party’s newspaper has confirmed that drills (live fire maneuvers) were carried out in Shenyang, a region which is very close to the DPRK borders. The units that took place were mechanized and armor units, which were testing maneuvers under harsh weather conditions. Washington still has not taken the armored factor into consideration, as the Country’s top military brass considers them obsolete. Martin Dempsey has said, though, that a pre-emptive strike is on the table, meaning that there is going to be a gunfight and US will be holding the knife.

US officials have also confirmed that the troops were part of the 190th Mechanized Mechanized Infantry Brigade based in Benxi, Liaoning Province. The Brigade is considered to constitute the “spearhead” of any operation, should China chooses to get involved and cross the borders with the DPRK. At that point we need to elaborate on something, because there seems to be a “misunderstanding” in terms of China’s role in this “situation”. Fox News reported on April 05 that “North Korea’s aggression could strengthen US-China alliance”. According to Fox News

“North Korea’s latest outburst of nuclear and military threats has given the U.S. a rare opportunity to build bridges with China — a potential silver lining to the simmering crisis that could revitalize the Obama administration’s flagging policy pivot to Asia”.

We rarely comment on other publications, but this time and under those circumstances the phenomenon, whereby everyone states what comes in his/her mind, has gone too far and has become very dangerous for US’s Foreign Policy. Not even in a parallel universe can a) China turn against North Korea, its only ally in the region, let alone b) build bridges with the US, while the second follows a containment policy towards the first in the Pacific Region. Our colleagues unfortunately fail to understand that China was the one who started all this. As a matter of fact it pursued tensions in the Senkaku region first, but the Japanese were too “cold-blooded” to respond to any Chinese provocation, so they got bored eventually, dropped the scheme and threw the ball in North Korea’s court. We have been stressing those issues for months, but…who are we? Certainly not the “Golden Boys” of the White House who get to be advisers and end up in conversations with military officials of other countries, who feel so “comfortable” as to blow the smoke of their Dunhill cigarettes on their faces. We stop here as we have made our point and consider more inappropriate to further comment on the…inappropriate!

The clouds of war have grown denser and Washington is in need of skillful diplomats as much as skillful generals in order to see this crisis through. Under the current circumstances we regret to read news that criminalize the US in this theater of operations and justify Pyonyang’s actions of moving “Musudan type” missiles, which are capable of striking Okinawa, Guam and/or South Korea.

For the first time, US has taken a step back and cancelled the scheduled launch of the Minuteman III ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile), in a remarkable attempt to de-escalate or at least refrain from escalating any further the tensions. If the US “had planned it all along” as some ignorants, who unfortunately happen to be professors as well, claim, then it would certainly launch the Minuteman missile instead of postponing it, even though officials claimed that this occurred due to “technical reasons”. Second thing, if their country is threatened by a paranoid regime, which lets the people of the country starve to death, and its nuclear weapons, then we would be very interested in watching their reactions. Would they not bolster-at least-their ABM defenses? And if they did that and things got worse, because they were meant from the beginning to get worse, would it be logical to state that it’s their fault, because they militarized the region? Certainly “Uncle Albert” comes often in our mind, when he said that human stupidity is infinite.

The recent Chinese drills have shown that the US is not prepared to fight a Continental force, such as China, through technological means solely. The need for mechanized warfare has also been stressed by DefenseHorizon many times in the past, as bombing campaigns have proven to be useless, unless they are combined with formidable forces on the ground. This is known at least from 1999 when NATO unloaded almost its entire payload on Serbia and if Boris Yeltsin, then President of the Russian Federation, did not urge Milosevic to step down, he would probably still be there.

This is a good chance for the US to square things out with China, but unless they shift their doctrine from “the air” to “the ground” they face the imminent danger of being cut off once and forever from the Asia-Pac theater.

Netanyahu-“The Unforgiven”-Is this how you honor Yonatan’s memory Mr PM?

MaviMarmara

Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent decision not only to apologize to Turkey but to compensate the families of “The Victims” killed during the Mavi Marmara operation in 2010, constitutes the biggest shame in Israel’s history since the near defeat during the Yom Kippur War in 1973. We are analysts and we do try very hard to sterilize our analyses from emotions, but should we had the chance to speak of our opinions publicly, we do not guarantee that the “sterilization procedure” would be as effective as now.

We will post the video below, where Israeli soldiers are beaten almost to death, by the so called “Turkish Activists”, the MIT agents who were on board to stage an Ottoman-style provocation. One is thrown off the ship. Yet, Mr Netanyahu at Obama’s behest, he apologized and he is about to grant compensation derived from the Israeli taxpayers to pay for the families of their so called “allies”. To us the event is as disgusting and pathetic as in the case of a man who asks for forgiveness from someone who assaulted his family. IS THIS MAN CAPABLE OF RUNNING ANY STATE, LET ALONE THE JEWISH ONE? DOES THIS MAN GUARANTEE THE SAFETY OF THE PEOPLE WHO FEAR FOR ANOTHER HOLOCAUST? DOES HE SEND THE RIGHT MESSAGES TO ISRAEL’S ENEMIES?


Rhetoric questions, all of the above, but we should have expected that. The most disgusting part is that Netanyahu himself did not want to dishonor himself and Israel as a whole, by apologizing. Since 2010 there were voices inside his government who prompted him to take the decision and apologize, but he did not. Thereby, the most disgusting part of the story is that once again he became Obama’s “YES MAN”! AS IN THE GAZA CASE, WHEN OBAMA ASKED HIM “FOR A LITTLE TIME”, AND THEN IT WAS TOO LATE TO STAGE AN INVASION. THAT WAS THE FIRST GRANT HUMILIATION OF ISRAEL IN THE EYES OF THE PEOPLE WHO FIRE ROCKETS TO CIVILIANS. DO YOU GIVE A DAMN ABOUT THOSE PEOPLE MR NETANYAHU? DON’T YOU SEE THAT BARACK OBAMA IS ANYTHING BUT PRO-ISRAELI? HE DOESN’T EVEN CARE WHETHER THE JEWISH STATE TURNS TO ASHES, YET NETANYAHU STILL FOLLOWS HIS “ORDERS”.

It’s so hilarious, especially if someone thinks of a similar occasion, when the Israelis were about to bomb Syria’s nuclear installation. Meir Dagan, the mighty and probable the best leader Mossad has ever had, went to Washington to meet George W. Bush! When Bush told him that he is already engaged in two fronts in the Middle East and America’s military backing would give the final blow to the country’s image, but what he suggested was expose Syria’s nuclear plans so that it could be forced under international pressure to dismantle the reactor, Ehud Olmert responded in July: “Your Strategy is very disturbing to me”.

SO, from the “Your Strategy is very disturbing to me” it has come down to “Aye me Lord!” coming from “Bibi’s” (Netanyahu nickname) mouth. Needless to point out that Meir Dagan and Netanyahu hate each other with actually Dagan hating Bibi even more, as ex Mossad’s “Iron Man Boss” cannot stand having a puppet leader! This is only natural.

We do wish to note something else in addition, something coming from Netanyahu’s family records. No, we do not wish to throw mud on his family, on the contrary the “Netanyahus” have a glorious name, which Bibi has not managed to live up to! His late older brother Yonatan Netanyahu was a war hero, not only because he fought during the Yom Kippur war but because he was leading a Sayeret Matkal (Israel’s best of the best Special Forces) during “Operation Entebbe”, when the honored soldier met his death. In fact he was the only military casualty the Israeli’s had, because most-if not all-Israeli commanders were applying the “Follow me” doctrine when in battle, rushing in the frontline themselves. Operation Entebbe was a counter hostage crisis having occurred after the Popular Front of the Liberation of Palestine along with the German Revolutionary Cells hijacked an Air France plane at Entebbe airport in Uganda.

The man’s death was not in vain, even though, unfortunately three hostages were killed, the rest of them were rescued! And after having narrated this story of courage and bravery we can’t help but wonder HOW WOULD HIS BROTHER REACT AFTER HAVING HEARD THAT A NATION WHO HAS STOOD SO MANY YEARS ON ITS OWN FEET HAS APOLOGIZED TO A GOVERNMENT OF CRIMINALS, PROVOCATEURS AND LIARS. A government which dares to defy the International law, claims territorial property from a Country, which is bankrupt, threatens to invade the rest of Cyprus if the drills by “Noble Energy” continue and last but not least put into the same category Zionism and Fascism as “crimes against humanity”. Is Erdogan going to apologize for those things in turn? We don’t think so!

Lieberman’s voice was the only one which stated emphatically: “An apology by the State of Israel on an Israel Defense Forces operation against a terror organization is a serious mistake. The apology hurts the motivation of IDF soldiers, strengthens extremists in the area and hurts Israel’s struggle along the righteous path. Erdogan’s refusal to apologize for his explicitly anti-Zionist remarks alongside the Israeli apology hurts Israel’s dignity and status in the region and the world”, while the opposition leader, Shelly Yacimovich, was giving “Bibi” a tap in the back for being a “good boy” to “lick were he spit”, we are terribly sorry but we can’t help ourselves using expressions, which fit only to traitors. That goes BOTH FOR OBAMA AND NETANYAHU, who ask how high each and every time Erdogan commands them to jump. And all that allegedly because “Turkey is a mighty nation”! If their fellow Greek political traitors had not been in power then Greece now would be the regional grand player. Greeks indeed have a lot of shortfalls, but they have a “clean record” in the region, they are not warmongers and they respect their deals. 

In the end what is going to happen is inevitable. Israel will get more involved in the Syrian crisis, a strategy which by the way lies far from the Country’s doctrine of not trying to topple Neighbor leaders (the only exception was when they tried to kill Saddam, but unfortunately during the “rehearsal” instead of a mock missile they used the real one and several commandos were killed, resulting in Yitzhak Rabin aborting the mission). If things don’t start to get complicated should the Western Forces decide to act militarily against President Assad, by using the most stupid pretext of Assad’s using BZ Chemical Weapons, then definitely things will get more complicated in three months from now when Obama will leave “Bibi” “out to dry” in terms of the Iran issue, as the US is far from willing to mess with the “Devil’s Triangle” (Iran-China-N.Korea).

“Bibi” is politically immature enough to order a strike performed by Israel single-handedly, but it is not Iraq in ’81 neither Syria in 2007. The “Mullahs” will threaten to retaliate and then “Bibi” will end up crying in Putin’s lap to convince the Iranian army not to wipe Israel off the map. Of course interventions have a price, Israel’s energy fields for example. Having analyzed the above, what other word would someone use to describe the situation if not “HIGH TREASON”?

Scramble-Iranian “Phantom” tries to intercept US Predator

PhantomIran

Thursday March 14, Pentagon announced an attempt by an Iranian Phantom-2 type plane to intercept an MQ-1 Predator, which was escorted by two other aircraft. Ultimately the Phantom broke off after a verbal warning and as it was initially stated one of the escort jets fired off a flare, a claim that US officials denounced later on. Spokesman George Little said that the Phantom was within 25 km range of the Predator drone, which was carrying out “a routine classified surveillance flight” over the Gulf, flying over international waters as US claims.

There is a precedence in regard to “dogfights” over the Gulf, when in November 2012 an Iranian Fighter Jet actually opened fire against a Predator drone, an incident which provoked a harsh lash out by Washington. Since then US officials stated that they would keep on the surveillance operations over what they consider to be International Waters, with the exception that the Drones would be escorted by fighter jets. As George Little put it: “We reserve the right to protect our military assets as well as our forces and will continue to do so going forward”.

DefenseHorizon has already informed its readers over the orchestrated actions of China-Iran and North Korea, which constitute a strategic triangle, a very dangerous ones for the US should a future conflict breaks out. It may be a coincidence but yesterday the new President of China officially assumed his duties. Xi Jinping has been characterized by experts to be a leader, who will pursue more actively China’s expansionist ambitions. We may compare what is happening in the Geostrategic “Bermuda Triangle” to the Chaos theory, which actually suggests that a butterfly in the Atlantic can cause a hurricane in the Pacific, though in the case of Iran-China-N.Korea this theory has a somewhat more “solid” and specific substrate.

Through the eyes of an expert, China sends a message, that it will pursue a war of two fronts and that would be a nightmare for the US. Although there are but a few possibilities Washington to pursue a strike against Iran during the current period, nevertheless the “Triangle Strategy” makes clear that it will have Washington pinned down in one location while fighting at another one. Thus, should an escalation in the Pacific occurs, Iran will keep provoking the US, forcing it even to open up a new front in the Middle East or worse if Israel pursues a strike by itself against Iran, then the Pacific front will be activated and again Washington will find itself playing in two “tennis courts”.

Alexandros Boufesis reporting for DefenseHorizon and Focus Dynamics Research Center

Dow Jones reaches an all time high, while America is in “sequestration mode”-Is there anyone who does not find this peculiar?

Meltdown

It was just last Friday when President Obama gave in to the “sequester climate” and made public cuts a reality for everyday Americans, by cutting $85 billion from the American economy, despite the looming repercussions, over which every member of the congress is aware of.

And while the Pentagon saw its budget cut in half and even lower than predicted earlier on, while America’s unemployment rate is about 7.8% (officially, which means that the real numbers are much higher), and to cut a long story short while the quality standards of what used to make up the US’s middle class (which has now disappeared) are getting lower, we heard a couple of days ago that the Dow Jones closed at an all time high of14,253, beating the previous record set in October 2007″. Is it just us, or is this news the most disturbing one would ever hear in such times of alleged economic recovery? 

Let’s look at the dates first, October 2007. In July 2007 the crisis, which would see its peak in September 2008 with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, had already started with the “fall” of Bear Stearns. In July Bear Stearns goes bankrupt, we have an ongoing crisis and in October the Dow Jones closed with a super high value not much lower than the one we saw a couple of days ago. One would argue that the markets underestimated the coming crisis, indeed this is the “fairytale” everyone wants to believe, but what if “the markets” gambled wildly in order to raise the index, as they had forecasted an upcoming major meltdown type crisis and just wanted to liquify everything in order to “keep their chairs before the music stopped”.

Be that as it may, one may argue, that back then it was the fall of Bear Stearns that initiated the crisis, what is the occasion now? Well, if the sequestration process is not “the occasion” or as a matter of fact “THE OCCASION”, then what is it? Is it not multiple times worse than a bank failing? What if the US fails within 2013? What if the dollar fails in this year and some geoeconomic centers already know it and that’s why they are creating an artificial “euphoria” so that they can climb to the “top of the waterslide” and slide along with trillions of dollars in their pockets, when the index will have reached the levels of 2008?

Barry Ritholtz, a market strategist, author and CEO of Fusion IQ, an online research firm, said: “…And a lot of this has to do with the massive intervention of the Federal Reserve. They have kept rates so low that it’s made it very inexpensive for corporations to borrow and invest and it’s created a lot of liquidity, which drives equity prices higher…” and then the presenter of the show, Gwen Ifill, stated that “Matt Phillips [The other guest, writes for Quartz, a digital news site that covers the global economy for Atlantic Media], because of the intervention of the Federal Reserve, some people are calling this rebound a sugar high”.

Yes, correct it’s a honeymoon in expectation of “sleepless nights” with werewolves tearing down what’s left of the US and the global economy. Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), for example has an extremely high value of 22771.44 while China’s other Indexes such as the The Shanghai Composite Index and The Shenzhen Component Index have much lower values those of 2,326.31 and 9,341.35 points respectively not to mention Russia’s RTS and MICEX which have much much lower values (between 1200-1500 maximum). Those figures mean that to a great extent the non US values are a mirror to the real economies of the States mentioned and that’s how things are supposed to roll like, but the US still give extreme gravity to the stock exchange part of the economy, which constitutes a completely different part from what is termed as “The real economy”. This has already cost both the US and the World a lot more than we will ever be able to count, but if a financial “waterslide” occurs within this year, given the fact that China has already stated that it will start withdrawing from Wall Street and Max Keiser (however peculiar his ways of expressing things might be) saying that they are cooking up a meltdown, which is going to be termed “a new crisis” simply for legal purposes, because the truth is that it will be the continuation of the 2008 one, then this is THE END! The world will be introduced to an unparalleled financial meltdown much worse that that of 1929, as the Dollar will be wiped out as a global reserve currency and the US will instantaneously plead bankrupt. The geopolitical-geographical consequences that would follow can only be described by people whose fantasy reach thus far. We admit that beyond this stage, the matter falls under the specialization of science fiction writers, as the magnitude of the losses will be quite astronomical!

SCRAMBLE-China and Japan on the brink of war-Mission: wear out the US

Crisis after crisis after crisis, erupt all around the world starting from last week on the anniversary of this day when 11 years ago, citizens around the world held their breath as two passenger planes were hitting the World Trade Center. The Muslim world is on fire not because of a movie of course, however disgusting and insulting its content may have been. 35 cities around the world are on the brink of violence, today Pakistan and Afghanistan “joined the club” of the “offended ones”, which started with the brutal murder of US’s ambassador Stephens in Libya. Once again it’s “Al Qaeda’s fault”, but let’s be honest for once and acknowledge the very least, that Al Qaeda is just a front, which is buried or unburied depending on the bloody Geopolitical gaming policymakers intend to play, and we are not talking about the US. Some scholars have suggested that the fact of US’s augmented presence with troops on the ground now “was an exploitation of this pretext”, but those scholars seem to have forgotten that before this limbo broke out, the US was in a disengaging mode.

The blaim lies elsewhere, in US politics of course, when they “sprung” the “Arab Spring”, unleashing the menace, the fury and the murdering radicalism not of Islam, but of its fascist aspect once it was combined with the teachings of Martin Bormann, successor of Hitler and the military training by Otto Skorzeny, the commando leader of the Waffen SS, who trained the first Fedayin troops.

So, who is behind all these, a revived Al Qaeda, some Oligarchs who wish to further exploit the regions they think they have under control or the REAL NEW WORLD ORDER? Let’s consider this! For more than three years now, a raging Euro crisis has been consuming Southern European States turning them into contemporary Labor Camps. Antisemitism has come back with a vengeance, Germany has almost completely denounced its NATO ties, signing the Meseberg Treaty with Russia, as we have mentioned before and the US has been making one blunder after the other in a consecutive way. Now, besides the Arab Limbo, China is inserted in the chessboard wishing to exploit the already existing heavy toll, at both political and military level, which the US has come to pay after a series of unbelievable mistakes in its Foreign Policy. Before there was this island dispute crisis, Merkel and Putin visited Beijing. Now, that fact alone says little to nothing, but there is absolutely no way that several fronts are being flared up all around the world simultaneously out of pure…coincidence! Such “serendipitous” events are rare in Geopolitics, not to say non existent. This is clearly an attrition warfare with the “fools” manning the front lines!

Who are those fools? At the sectarian-religious level the Islam fanatics and at a state level the Chinese, who after the APEC summit (as we had predicted once again), and with aspirations lying in the upcoming Eurasian status quo, they feel confident enough to provoke the US (through Japan) and play an active role as a state in this “Attrition Marathon”. We honestly fail even to attempt to predict what the number one front of war might be! The whole world “smells like gasoline”, but it is very possible that the Chinese will definitely try to exploit, NOW, the revolution of the Muslim world, in order to make their move and expand territorially in the Pacific. In that case the Americans have to choose between “sending all they’ve got”, “Leave the Pacific to the Chinese” (highly unlikely) or leave Israel to the Muslim wolves (more likely, since it has become a fashion for the US lately to neglect Israeli affairs in the Middle East”

Brace for Impact, as China, the US and the Arab World will become involved in the clash with Germany and Russia staying out of the game until all their opponents are consumed by the “Mortal Combat” and only then assert themselves into the new era proposing what we have predicted so many times as the Eurasian alternative. Chancellor Merkel actually admitted it today in a way: “Euro is the symbol of Peaceful Growth”, but what she actually implied was “You are God damn right that we never gave up hoping that we will rule Europe, we just changed the modus operandi and by pursuing a Geoeconomic power center with cheap labor, thus rendering our Economy at least as competitive as that of China, and through our bonds with Russia, we not only rule Europe, but we get 50% of the whole world domination”. So bottom line, our official prediction is this: The Middle East, China and the US become worn out by chronic guerrilla and sectarian classes (Middle East) and broader scale conflicts (in the Pacific Region). Thus, three opponents engage themselves prematurely in the decaying Geopolitical status quo as a result from their own expectations to form a new one. Holding back, Germany and Russia wait, trying to contain the fire from spreading into their own ground and once the opponent is exhausted they strike with…an already formed-de facto- Confederation of States! Bismarck’s Grand Eurasia!

Barack Obama-US’s Gorbachev

“Yes we can…” Democratize hell and face the consequences of radicalism, kill Bin Laden and then fund other terror cells, more extremist and more dangerous for the civilized men!

 

 

When the Soviet Union collapsed, it was the actions of Mikhail Gorbachev that led to the Geopolitical catastrophe that followed what seemed to be a “radical reform”. But in the 21st century Gorbachev’s legacy “comes back with a vengeance” in the face of the President of the US Barack Obama, who definitely has to answer for the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood and the recent assassination of the American Ambassador in Libya. The facts are unchangeable now: The US facilitated the rise of radical Islamism in the Middle East, through overt and covert support during the revolutions, which are widely known collectively as “The Arab Spring”. As it is now crystal clear, the Administration knew all about the consequences of funding radical Islamist and terror cells in the region, thus contributing to the Geopolitical “earthquakes” which keep shaking the region and the killing of Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other members of the consulate. The pics that we are about to show are shocking for any civilized person’s eyes, yet they depict the kind of  Democracy, this administration is so fond of! Behold the people who were formerly “oppressed” by Gaddafi and now “blessed” by the gifts of Democracy, which “so much deserved”. Before the photos we insert a rather prophetic poem by Robert E. Howard, which although it refers to the area of “Nippon”, which is another name of Japan, portrays the hideous details of the era we and our children live in.

“Little Brown Man Of Nippon”

Little brown man of Nippon
Who apes the ways of the west,
You have set the sword on your standard,
And the eagle on your crest.

Little brown man of Nippon,
You have dreamed a deadly dream;
You have waked the restless ravens
And the rousing vultures scream.

Oh, lines of an unborn empire,
Foam of a rising flood,
Your bones shall mark the borders,
The tide shall be your blood.

Little brown man of Nippon,
Though the star of the West be set,
And the last of the fair-haired strew the field
Where East and West be met –

Though you herd us down like cattle,
And hew us down like corn,
Our blood shall drown your vision
Of the empire yet unborn.

In utter desolation, and despair
At the end, on a blackened hill,
You shall sit and view your empire,
Broken and charred and still.

The beams of shattered houses,
Reared stark against the sky,
And fields wherein, for waving grain,
Long waves of dead men lie.

We will set the torch with our own hands
To wall and roof and spire;
We will cut the throats of our women,
And feed our babes to the fire;

We will fling our naked bosoms
Against your bloodied steel;
As you tread us under, dying,
Our teeth shall rend your heel.

But, little brown man of Nippon,
Should the dice fall otherwise,
And the gods of the fair-haired triumph
When the battle-dawns arise –

We will give your flesh to the sea-gulls
And your cities to the flame,
Till the world forgets your visions,
And the years forget your name.

Over your island empire
Shall our steel-clad squadrons fly
Till the land lies black and silent
Under a flame-ripped sky.

Till the hungry wolf goes slinking
Along your shattered streets,
And the kite in your ruined palace
Tears at the crimson meats.

And over the crimson gutters
Which infant bodies choke
The raven flaps and strangles
In the drifting shreds of smoke.

No plough shall break your valleys,
No song shall rouse your hill –
Still and silent the ploughmen,
The singers silent and still.

And your nation’s only emblem,
Oh, man of the crimson dream –
Save corpses in the broken streets
And the death-fires’ baleful gleam –

Shall hang at the prow of a cruiser,
That furrows the flying foam,
Bearing the spoils of conquest
To the fair-haired people’s home.

Shall hang at the prow of a cruiser,
Grinning and dripping red,
The price of a dream of empire –
Little brown man, your head.

No human being deserves this, let alone an American esteemed figure! A bearer of Democracy, which murderers obviously do not deserve!

On behalf of Focus Dynamics we wish to extend our sympathy to the loved ones of the victim along with our hope that some day people who are responsible for this atrocity (perpetrators included) will stand trial before of the Hague’s Tribunal

“We came, we saw, he died”, said Mrs Clinton commenting on the brutal death of a “dictator”. Unfortunately Gaddafi was not the only one who experienced this horror…

Turks take command of elements of the FSA-The new “Baader-Meinhof” complex

 

 

 

 

 

 

What happened when Andreas Baader met Ulrike Meinhof? History states that they founded the Baader-Meinhof complex also known as RAF (Red Army Faction), which spread terror in Germany until its dissolution in 1998. Since terrorism had a history long before the 9/11 strike against the WTC, it is fair enough to make such comparisons, when discussing the malignancy of terrorism, either by comparing groups of radicals or states that fund groups of radicals or simply radical states. That said, it is not unfair to compare the Baader-Meinhof complex with the recent Turkey-FSA “alliance”. Just because it has the blessing of the Obama Administration and General Petraeus himself, this fact alone does not make this alliance less unholy or legitimizes in any way Turkey’s opportunistic actions in order to augment its power as a Neo-Ottoman entity in the Minor Asia region. Applying a two measurement standard when it comes to terrorism, is something already proven to have-the least to say-catastrophic consequences to the Global Security. State leader “discovered” terrorism when the US was hit, but Osama bin Laden existed since he was funded by CIA cells in order to fight against the Russian occupation of Afghanistan. In a way, the same thing occurs nowadays. Ostensibly, bin Laden was shot dead (doesn’t matter whether he was or wasn’t carrying a gun when the SEALS stormed in his residence in Pakistan), Al Qaeda was weakened, but the West seems to “miss” those “good old days” of Al Qaeda’s insurgency, or so it seems, since the US tolerates the fact that the “Free Syrian Army” comprises extremist elements, one of them being the revived Al Qaeda. So, there is a two measurement approach when it comes to terrorism, depending on the political necessity of the US or Turkey, anytime a political administration wish to capitalize on the existence of extremist cells. It is not widely admitted, through actions and serious counter measures, that radical extremist is the most important threat the Free World faces today, regardless of whether a regime has to fall or stay in power. Is Assad’s fall more important than the Free World’s defense against terrorism? Because some seem to be willing to tip the scale in favor of the second, using as a pretext the “necessity for a political change” in a broader and highly dangerous region such as the Middle East. One would argue, that even in the case of a putative “alien invasion”, whereby terrorists, could be used to fight against “aliens”, the pretext of using terror cells as a means to an end, would still be illegal, unjustifiable and a crime against humanity.

 

Turkey’s Neo-Ottoman vision, under the “auspice” or “blind eye” of the US! Martin Dempsey does not want to be complicit to Iran’s bombing, but several US administrations have been complicit and provoked this Geopolitical fallout

So according to DEBKA:

“Turkish army officers have assumed direct command of the first two Syrian rebel brigades fighting Bashar Assad’s government forces, according to debkafile’s exclusive sources. This step has sent military tensions rocketing on Israel’s northern borders with Syria and Lebanon in case of a backlash.
The rebel North Liberators Brigade in the Idlib region of northern Syria and the Tawhid Brigade fighting in the Al-Bab area northeast of Aleppo are now taking their operational orders from Turkish officers, who exercise their authority from headquarters outside Syria in the southeastern Turkish city of Gaziantep. Nonetheless, Turkey is considered to have stepped directly into the Syrian conflict marking the onset of foreign intervention…”

We disagree with DEBKA only on the last point made in terms of Turkey “marking the onset of foreign intervention”. “Foreign intervention” was evident all the way since the Syrian crisis started, with Turkey doing everything overtly or covertly to leave its “Neo-Ottoman footprint” on the region, regardless of who was fighting whom, how many civilians were shot dead by the gangsters of the FSA, how many children were slaughtered-Iraqi style-or how many innocents were blown up each time “Allah’s will” armed the hands of Al-Qaeda. And who gets to pay the bill in the end? Israel, which has to face Hizbollah in Lebanon, which not unexpectedly, is ready to make its move in order to further consolidate its power over Lebanon and the Middle East. But the worst case scenario has not yet come to pass. It will, though, when (not if anymore, since the Russians justifiably bugged out of Tartus) the No-Fly zone will be established, Assad’s regime falls and chaos will give rise to sectarian conflicts, which can spark all over the Middle East from Morocco to Lebanon. Again, though, this speculation is based on the better case scenario that Saudi Arabia survives through the Arab Spring and the monarchy stays loyal to the West. If the monarchy falls, then Israel will have-at best- a 50-50 scenario of maintaining its existence as a state entity. 

Not all states allow a bunch of oligarchs to view the Geopolitical status quo of the world as if it was another Wall Street gamble. Some states like Israel and Russia, actually do mind about what’s happening in their “backyards” and whether their state security will be compromised by the blunders of puppet political figures!

Focus Dynamics’ prediction once again coming true-Germans, “Too fast, too furious”

Crucial countdown for major Geopolitical rearrangements! For Germany, it is a matter of expansion, for the US, though, this is a matter of holding its position in the turbulent Mediterranean region!

 

 

 

 

 

A “Hattrick” for our Research Center and the warnings or “predictions”, which were posted in the past. This one comes out directly from Handelsblatt, a leading German language business newspaper: “The Greek crisis raises concerns regarding stability in the Balkan region”, according to the newspaper, something like “A Balkan Spring” (First written by Focus Dynamics) danger. “The Euro-populists seem to forget one thing”, the article further states, “that Greece is a political barrier against extremism and terrorism and of course one {barrier}, which shields Europe from the recent political developments in the Middle East and the surge of radical elements”.

Does this remind us of “The Mediterranean Bridgehead”? The project we have been working on, posing exactly the same reasons why Russia and the US should focus on Greece in order to halt the spread of extremism and terrorism in light of recent developments in the Middle East.

Philip Missfelder, acting as Foreign Policy Spokesman for the Fraction of the Christian Democrats, in the German Parliament, stated that “Because of Greece’s geographical location in the South Eastern Europe, the country is rendered as extremely important for the EU’s peripheral stability”.

This statement is a “warm up” of what is going to occur within days or weeks in Greece. In the article on the possibility of a military coup in Greece, we had expressed our fears regarding how and by whom this coup is going to be organized! We had pointed out that if it is orchestrated by the Americans like the one in 1967, then the US will solidify their position in the rich in natural resources Mediterranean Region and at the same time counter Germany’s unorthodox efforts to instill a slave zone in the South. But, as we had pointed out, if the Germans prove to be “too fast too furious”, then the EUROGENDFOR may find the right pretext and intervene in order for Germany to encapsulate Greece, as the first state of the upcoming United States of Europe.

And what would be a better pretext than the one stated by Messfelder? Greece has a prolonged and thorough migration issue with extremists coming from Afghanistan, Pakistan and the regions that were hit by the recent Arab Spring uprisings. There have been warnings that radical Muslims could initiate a chain of terrorist strikes, amidst the worst economic situation Greece has ever experienced, combined with the rise of ultra-nationalism! Should that happen, Greece will be just hours away from the installation of a military junta, made either in the US or Germany! 

Syria: Russians back off, but “the bear” has “other fish to fry”

No rush for Vladimir Vladimirovich or the Russian Federation, as things unfold very unfavorably for those who have inserted themselves in the Middle East inferno

On August 29 DEBKA published a report, whereby it is stated that Russians have evacuated Syria. According to Israeli Intelligence sources:

Russian naval vessels have unexpectedly departed the Syrian Mediterranean port of Tartus and Russian arms shipments to Syria have been suddenly discontinued. debkafile’s military sources reveal that those and other steps indicate that the Russians are rapidly drawing away from the Syrian arena to avoid getting caught up in the escalating hostilities expected to arise from military intervention by the US, Europe and a number of Arab states. Russian intelligence appears to have decided that this outside intervention is imminent and Moscow looks anxious to keep its distance for now…”

Let’s note once more how significant Tartus is for Russia. It is the only port left in the Mediterranean Sea. When ex Greek Prime Minister George Panadreou visited Moscow a couple of years ago, to receive the “Go to the IMF” advice from then President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin, sometime later Ivan Savvidis, a Greek-Russian Duma MP stated at “Epikaira” magazine (the one that had disclosed the plot to assassinate ex Prime Minister Konstantinos Karamanlis, the so called “Operation Pythia”) that he himself had prepared the ground in order Russia to provide Greece with financial aid, so that it would not have to go to the IMF. According to Savvidis, Prime Minister Putin was expecting Papandreou to ask him for aid (just like Christofias had done in Cyprus), but to Putin’s utter surprise, Papandreou opened discussions related on common “environmental issues between Greece and Russia”. It was widely known back then that the Russians wanted a naval base in the Aegean and they were willing to offer a very strong financial aid plus the 4.5 and 5th Generation aircrafts, the Su-35 BM and the T-50 PAK FA respectively to Greece, in exchange for Agricultural products.

Schematic representation of the potential scenario of the RF-4E shot down

Bygones are bygones, but the bottom line is that the Russians were always eager to acquire an “exit” towards the Mediterranean sea since Peter the Great. As a matter of fact, when the military junta was installed in Greece, the first dictator, Georgios Papadopoulos had allegedly given the island of Thasos as an anchorage site to the Russians (that was one of the reasons actually behind his later fall from Greece, as he was approaching the Soviets too much). How come then that the Russians are so willing to give up on Tartus, especially after the forces and the armaments which were transferred there during this year. P-800 Yakhont coastal defenses, Pantsir and S-300 PMU-2 systems are some examples of the forces, which were installed there, not to mention the expenses for Tartus’s modernization, with the port being widened to accommodate ships in the future the size of “Admiral Kuznetsov” (Russia’s only aircraft carrier). Russian Spetsnaz fought side to side with the Syrian government forces and Russian military advisers made a tremendous contribution towards the step taken to eradicate the FSA presence both from Aleppo and Damascus. The Pantsir anti air defense system was the one, which allegedly shot down the Turkish RF-4E reconnaissance aircraft and now what? The game is suddenly over for the Russians?

What did Putin and Obama agree upon? Was it related to the Missile Shield in Poland or a potential war in Caucasus, whereby the Russians would clean up what was left of the Georgian influence in the area without any US interference? Yet still that would not be enough. Russians had threatened that if Iran was hit, then they would sell those S-300 to the Iranians, which the later never received (and as a result of that they demanded compensation from Russia). Dumping Iran is one thing, but dumping Syria and Iran is another. So once again we find ourselves in the extremely difficult situation to guess what’s inside Putin’s head.

The disputed pocket of Nagorno-Karabach, which both Armenia and Azerbaijan claim! Caucasus has been a very “surgical” matter for Russia since the fall of the USSR

The Russians are stubborn, but they are no fools! They know that an engagement in the Middle East now is “a fool’s errand”! There will be far too many casualties of Russian lives, not to mention the Geopolitical impact should Russians and NATO troops would clash in Syria. And what would the results of such a broader scale clash be? Minimum compared to the turbulence, which would spread from the Middle East to Caucasus before acquiring a broader global momentum of unimaginable consequences. So what was the alternative? Missile Defense shield, a promise from the American side not to intervene should the Russians choose to get rid of Saakashvili and consequently interfere to resolve the Naghorno Karabach enclave issue in favor of Armenia by strengthening their position there? We should note that as things have developed since the end of the Russian-Georgian war in 2008, the Russian troops stationed in Armenia are extremely hard to be supplied, at least by land. The only resupplying occurs by air transport means and this is not favorable at all. Thus a prospective continuation of the hostilities of the “Hot August of 2008” was always on the table as a scenario, which would solve many problems and settle down the last turmoils, which broke out when the USSR collapsed. It is a fine and “tidy” mentality to take care of the “neighborhood” first before expanding to “unknown seas”, but it’s something else as well.

As thing are developing in the Middle East, the future suggests that large zones of sectarian conflict will form up regardless of whether Assad stays or goes. As a matter of fact it is debatable whether this particular scenario makes any difference anymore, with the Arab Spring revolts spreading to Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. As a consequence of the anarchy, which will be established, especially if the Israelis hit Iran and the Americans impose a no fly zone over Syria, Middle East will become a “no man’s land”, a broader area of violence, terrorism and chaos.

In that case, those who are involved in this-the least to say-“unfavorable” situation will be consumed in an attrition warfare, Israel included. And since the US can no longer provide the same guarantees for the protection of Israel, the later will seek Russia’s help, in return for-not one-but many naval bases in the Mediterranean sea. With that mentality, in the long run, who cares about Tartus?