China’s flank secured, as it was intended!

Ladakh

On April 15 China amazed almost everyone when a platoon crossed the border also known as Line of Actual Control (LAC) set after the Sino-Indian war of 1962 (although it was unofficially named as such in 1959) and penetrated deep inside Indian territory in the Ladakh region, thus escalating the tensions with India without any particular reason whatsoever, at least not as conspicuous as “The naked eye” could catch. Although China’s “restlessness” seemed to a great extent unnecessary, even dangerous, with ambiguous political objectives, if any, in truth China’s new leader knew exactly what he was doing and most importantly why he was doing it. Therefore the political objectives were clear, albeit only to the Chinese, who took the opportunity to test their Western-Influenced neighbor’s reactions in a “hypothetical situation” whereby China was perceived as an enemy by the West. That said, the Chinese took the matter a little further adding the notion of the “invader” in the already pitch black painted picture that the US and its allies are promoting. Truly, from a Chinese perspective, this Geostrategic “Chicken game” proved to be more fruitful than any verbal commitments China’s neighbor would be willing to present in the case-let us speculate-of an increased “activity” in the Pacific.

This gesture from China’s side, as said earlier, was perhaps necessary for the nation’s future maneuverings both diplomatically and/or militarily speaking. It was a necessity, bitter for sure, but a necessity nevertheless in order to measure what is broadly characterized as “The unstable factor”. India could play that role in the case of a conflict in the Pacific and China craved for reassurances, not verbal, but practical from the Indian side that they would not press at their flanks as a result of China’s preoccupation elsewhere. There are many questions and of course a lot of material for analysis in that case, but for us there’s only one question that dominates every other in this case. What if? What if India had reacted nervously? What if the Chinese platoon had been fired upon by India’s elite (in theory) special forces which were placed almost immediately opposite them. And what if things in general had escalated, something which is actually expected to occur under the globe’s current re-distribution of Geopolitical prerogatives? We should not forget that a couple of months ago the situation was tense in the Pacific due to North Korea, a situation which up to date has not returned to the pre-war rhetoric period of DPRK’s new leader Kim Jong Un. The industrialized zone which once posed as the sole unity between the North and the South has been closed after North Korea’s-still up to date-unexplained stance. Thus every tie between the two countries remains severed. The DPRK has already proclaimed war, there are no hotlines available for communication, even the 1953 armistice has been scrapped by the Norths, a stance which stands up to date. Thus, under those aforementioned circumstances a new Sino-Indian war was the least “desirable” scenario for both India and China, yet China amidst an inflamed, rather prolonged, period of hostility suddenly decides to cross the Ladakh and step into India’s territory, a fact of course which China has yet to admit, nevertheless if it was up to the Chinese to admit what belongs and what does not belong to them, then even the Pacific Ocean would be named after China (Chinese Ocean).

The Chinese forces remained in the region for three weeks as the two sides were “negotiating”, but in the backdrop of a generalized revisionism sweeping across the globe, someone has to ask this question: “What’s there to negotiate?” Yet the Indians were caught off guard showing their reluctance to go to war with China even when the Chinese forces established a supply route, an indication that they were there to stay. A “line” though is a “line” drawn on a map and as it was shown, end of the day no reason for India to go to war because of 15 km suddenly belonging to China. There was nothing there anyway except of snow and perhaps a “Yeti” or two, nevertheless China’s stance showed the West some interesting things regarding its mentality, elements which have to be studied and taken into consideration for the very near future

a) The Chinese crosses into India amidst growing tensions in the Pacific, sending the message that no matter how far “you think you have gone” we can go further.

b) It exhibited the obvious once again, which is its desire to expand towards every direction, North, West, East, South, you name it!

c) China crossed swords with a country, which is also in possession of nuclear weapons. As a matter of fact we could take the argument one step further and proclaim India as THE only country (after US and Russia) which is culturally mature enough in order to possess nuclear weapons and not threaten the world with a nuclear holocaust at the same time, unlike China and Pakistan for example.

d) The second message which China sent is its determination to fight a war (even a nuclear war) of two fronts if need be! Things would be much different had India responded with an artillery barrage killing every Chinese soldier who stepped foot on its territory, something that even China does not want, but it will if it has to in the future.

e) The above conclusion is China’s greatest strength and weakness at the same time as well as its modus operandi as a state which has acquired the means to expand and is eager to use them if need be in order to do so! We dare speculate that this kind of behavior is a pre-Geoeconomic attribute of a country’s stance, compared only to that of Germany’s prior to the Second World War. The Germans after having exited the grave economic situation they found themselves dug in prior to Hitler’s ascendance, as they were acquiring the means to show the world what a robust economy along with strong arms and good tactics could achieve, they could hardly restrain themselves from overexhibiting the might of the new Reich. 

We have reasons to believe that China’s behavior is following a similar patent. Daring, audacious, sometimes insane and definitely unpredictable, end of the day, though, dangerous! That said, if we had to draw a conclusion from the “mini shake up” with India, that would be that China is now ready to go after its goals in the Pacific. As a matter of fact, the Chinese do nothing to hide it, especially after the visit of China’s PM to India, right after the turmoil and their pledge to work under “friendly terms” in order to avert such sort of territorial crises in the future, something that definitely seems odd and unexpected to the observer. China was happy to find out that India would be kept in a short leash anyway, whatever the circumstances. Its administration’s officials were also happy so much so that they could not restrain themselves. It has happened before…it can happen again!